As you may have heard by now, the Atlanta Braves made a few changes over the winter. With the new additions, the Braves lineup figures to be among the most powerful in baseball. But along with all that thunder, there will also be plenty of whiffs. In fact the Braves strikeout tally could be among the highest in the game. Here’s the key question, though…
Does it matter?
But before we answer that, let’s start with start with another question (or two): Just how many strikeouts are the Braves adding? Have they really added that many?
Uh yes, yes they have.
Just for fun, let’s see what the Braves strikeout total would look like if the newly acquired Upton brothers, BJ & Justin, and Chris Johnson were on the Atlanta roster last year. That trio brings in a total of 382 strikeouts in their bags of tricks. Chipper Jones, Martin Prado and Michael Bourn have departed and taken their 275 punchouts with them.
Now that we see the raw strikeout numbers, let’s try to find some context for them. You’ve probably seen K rate, which is strikeouts per plate appearance. Let’s make that number a little more like a batting average. Instead of hits, we’re dividing strikeouts by at bats. We’ll call this our “strikeout average”.
In 2012, the Braves were near the bottom of the pack with a .237 k-avg. If we take out the 2012 numbers for Bourn, Prado and Jones and replace them with those of the Uptons and C.Johnson, the Braves would have finished the year with a whopping .265 K rate. That would have led the league. Comfortably.
Now this isn’t news to anyone. Kris Medlen likes to dance, Johnny Venters throws bowling balls, the Braves strike out a lot.
Now, back to our earlier question… Does it matter?
2012 MLB TEAM STRIKEOUT/OFFENSIVE RANKINGS:
k-avg rank |
k-avg |
Offense rank |
k-avg rank |
k-avg |
Offense rank
|
|||
Astros |
30 |
.252 |
30 |
Brewers |
15 |
.223 |
3 |
|
Athletics |
29 |
.251 |
14 |
White Sox |
14 |
.218 |
7 |
|
Pirates |
28 |
.250 |
23 |
Rockies |
13 |
.218 |
6 |
|
Rays |
27 |
.245 |
18 |
Red Sox |
12 |
.214 |
8 |
|
Braves |
26 |
.238 |
17 |
Yankees |
11 |
.213 |
2 |
|
Orioles |
25 |
.237 |
15 |
Dodgers |
10 |
.213 |
26 |
|
Nationals |
24 |
.236 |
10 |
Cardinals |
9 |
.212 |
5 |
|
Diamondbacks |
23 |
.232 |
9 |
Tigers |
8 |
.201 |
11 |
|
Reds |
22 |
.231 |
21 |
Angels |
7 |
.201 |
4 |
|
Mets |
21 |
.229 |
25 |
Giants |
6 |
.197 |
12 |
|
Mariners |
20 |
.229 |
27 |
Phillies |
5 |
.197 |
19 |
|
Padres |
19 |
.228 |
24 |
Rangers |
4 |
.197 |
1 |
|
Cubs |
18 |
.228 |
28 |
Indians |
3 |
.197 |
22 |
|
Blue Jays |
17 |
.228 |
13 |
Twins |
2 |
.192 |
16 |
|
Marlins |
16 |
.226 |
29 |
Royals |
1 |
.183 |
20 |
It’s true that Houston was dead last in both k-avg and runs scored. But let’s face it, the Astros are the Astros. No matter how many times they struck out last year, that lineup wasn’t going to score runs. Not even in that popcorn machine they call a ballpark.
In just a handful of cases did a team’s k-avg track closely with their overall offensive ranking. Aside from Pittsburgh, the teams that struck out the most were generally middle-of-the-pack in terms of total runs scored.
On the other end of the strikeout spectrum, Kansas City, Minnesota and Cleveland were the hardest teams in the league to strike out. They ranked 20th, 16th and 22nd in runs respectively.
So if strikeouts aren’t the determining factor, then what is? Below are the top 6 teams in baseball last year in runs scored. Next to runs, a mystery category. Can you guess what it is?
Runs | ?? | |
Rangers | 1 | 4 |
Yankees | 2 | 2 |
Brewers | 3 | 9 |
Angels | 4 | 5 |
Cardinals | 5 | 1 |
Rockies | 6 | 6 |
And the mystery category is… on-base percentage! Every plate appearance results in either an out, or not an out. You only have three outs an inning, 27 in a game. The teams that send the most hitters to the plate with their allotted 27 outs tend to score the most runs.
How about the Braves last year?
They ranked 13th in team OBP… 17th in runs scored. The year before that, they were 26th in OBP and 22nd in runs.
BOTTOM LINE: Braves fans shouldn’t concerned about the extra strikeouts in the lineup this year. This team will strike out. But this team will also hit home runs. How frequently runners reach base in front of those home runs (and other extra-base hits) is going to be the critical factor in this offense.
Soon, we’ll take a look at importance of strikeouts in the postseason, but for now, rest assured that a gaudy strikeout total isn’t a death knell to the Braves World Series hopes.
Darren Schienbein is a freelance baseball analyst and BravesWire contributor. Follow Darren on Twitter: @shinesie