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    Braves at the Deadline: The Ring is The Thing, and The Time is Now to Go for It

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA — Imagine for a moment it’s the night before Thanksgiving, and you are in the car, off in search of that one last item to make the holiday meal absolutely perfect.

    The highways are as congested as the Downtown Connector on a Friday afternoon. Finding what you need is as easy as securing that last gallon of milk in the hours before a Southern snowstorm. And when you finally do return home with the missing piece, the one element you hope makes this family gathering the moment they rave about for decades to come, you also shutter at the price you paid.

    Sounds fun, right?

    Welcome to the next two weeks of Alex Anthopoulos’ life.

    When we sit down for Thanksgiving dinner this November, how we view the Atlanta Braves 2019 season likely will be shaped by what their general manager accomplishes between now and the July 31 trade deadline. That’s not to minimize what these Braves have accomplished to this point, sitting in first place in the National League East as the Washington Nationals head to town for a key four-game series starting Thursday at SunTrust Park. But make no mistake about it: while the results through the first 97 games of this season may not have altered the overall master plan, it should flip the short-term narrative.

    These Braves are very good. These Braves are close to being great. These Braves are on the verge of being something incredibly special.

    These Braves need to go for it.

    Now.

    (Let’s take a step back for a little perspective – because the masses that read this likely will want to stop here and grab their pitchforks, convinced I’m advocating trading everything not nailed down in Lawrenceville and Pearl and Kissimmee for one swing at the summit.)

    No more than I would advise somebody blowing the January mortgage in order to buy the greatest Christmas present ever, I do not think Atlanta should take dynamite to its carefully calculated, painfully executed plan for returning to long-term prominence in exchange for one lone shot at October glory. Even with no moves at this year’s deadline, the Braves are as well situated as any team in the majors to contend year-in, year-out, for the foreseeable future.

    But that doesn’t preclude you from realizing the metamorphosis of this team the past two months, the dynamics of this year’s roster and the sum of its parts, measured against what you think is possible with an addition or two. That must be weighed against the current and future cost, of course, and the impact such moves would deliver to the current roster.

    None of this is anything new for Anthopoulos. He developed a gun-slinging reputation as general manager in Toronto, dealing prospects by the boatload in pursuit of a title. And while the Blue Jays never reached the World Series under his watch, they did play for the pennant twice. Ironically, the two most painful players lost in the bevy of deals Anthopoulos pulled the trigger on north of the border may be on the move at this year’s deadline: Detroit starter Matthew Boyd and Mets star Noah Syndergaard.

    The thought that a player with Syndergaard’s talent and pedigree could be available (I personally do not think he will be traded) speaks volumes to the fascinating, and – for a team wanting to buy, like Atlanta – frustrating landscape in which teams find themselves with two weeks left before deals must be done by 4 p.m. ET on the final day of the month. The sense of urgency is heightened because of a rule change that dictates no waiver trades are allowed in August, plus a glut of teams that reached mid-July with at least a puncher’s chance to stay relevant over the season’s final two months.

    Consider this: Entering play Wednesday, there were seven teams in the National League within four games of the second and final wild-card spot. In the American League, two teams sat tied for the final wild card, with three teams within 4 ½ games of that position. Twenty-two of the 30 teams in the majors began play Wednesday within five games of a playoff spot, adding to the urgency to play well in the final days of the month.

    Certainly, some of those teams will struggle leading up toward the deadline and will elect to sell. Others caught in the mired mess of the wild-card pack will realize their franchise benefits more from selling than trying to leapfrog the pile for the guarantee of one game – especially in the NL, where the winner of the wild-card game likely draws the Dodgers in the NL Division Series.

    It’s a seller’s market, indeed, and many of the top teams like the Braves find themselves seeking the same two commodities: a starting pitcher for one of the top spots in the rotation, and a dependable closer. Pitching at the deadline does not come cheap, especially this year, with so few sellers and plenty of buyers seeking the same thing.

    Under normal circumstances, it might be plausible for the Braves to shoot lower, avoid the most crowded, expense parts of the store. But these are not normal times. The Braves have blossomed, going 40-19 since early May and establishing themselves as the second-best team in the National League. Were the playoffs to start today, they would be favored to beat the Cubs or Brewers or Cardinals in the NLDS, and clearly are more of a threat to the Dodgers in a playoff series than last season, when the emerging Baby Braves of ’18 battled gamely but were vastly overmatched in a four-game NLDS defeat.

    Anthopoulos knows this. Joking with a member of the Braves Radio Network while standing outside the press box at Wrigley Field pregame last month, I laughed as we discussed the constant drumbeat on social media for the Braves GM to “do something!” I get it, though. Since coming to Atlanta, Anthopoulos has followed a more measured approach than in his ultra-aggressive Toronto days. Perhaps a byproduct of the lessons learned after leaving Toronto and spending time in the Dodgers front office. Perhaps a byproduct of learning the Braves loaded minor-league system and not wanting to make the wrong move, while still getting up to speed on the value of all the assets at his disposal.

    And yes, perhaps a byproduct of nondisclosed constraints applied to the team by Liberty Media’s corporate ownership. The “shop in any aisle” and “financial flexibility” comments have been deadpanned to death by Braves fans, and with good reason. But this team has soared in the past nine weeks, and signing free-agent pitcher Dallas Keuchel in early June provided a positive jolt throughout the locker room and the fanbase.

    If that was a jolt, it’s time for a thunderbolt, one that vaults the Braves shoulder-to-shoulder with Los Angeles at the top of the Senior Circuit. Yes, it will be costly. Yes, it will hurt. Yes, there will be criticism, and it will be harsh. But step back a second and consider this: Atlanta has five prospects in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. Several of the prospects ranked 6-to-15 in the Braves Top 30 would sit in the top five of many other organizations. If Atlanta has to part with two or three of its top five to land the pieces needed to make it a honest-to-goodness World Series championship contender in 2019, the time has arrived to do so.

    It must be the right deal, and for the right asset. For example: I’m not dealing Cristian Pache for two months of Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith – truth be told, I’m not dealing Pache for anybody. But if a controllable elite closer (Felipe Vazquez and Brad Hand, for example) or a starter with at least one more season of control after 2019 (Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Mike Minor and Boyd are names that jump out) becomes available, pieces that would push the Braves into the short group of elite MLB teams, nobody outside of Pache should be off limits.

    Because while we all love prospects, face it: The Braves can absorb those types of moves as well, if not better, than any team in the sport. Nobody wants to see Ian Anderson pitching for another organization. Or Kyle Wright, or Kyle Muller, or Joey Wentz, or Bryse Wilson. Nobody wants to see Drew Waters wear a major-league uniform missing a tomahawk across the chest. The list goes on and on. Many teams could not recover from dealing just one of those guys. Honestly, the Braves could deal multiple members of that group and still be OK.

    For all the criticism of Anthopoulos’ conservative approach in his first 20 months on the job, the fact remains the Atlanta farm system is stocked with tremendous talent, and a lot of it is not too far away from knocking at the major-league door. There simply isn’t room for all of them. It’s time to cash out on some of the exceptional young talent the Braves have spent the past half-decade aggregating.

    Sometimes, it takes just an extra sprinkle of spice to make a blue-ribbon recipe. On Aug. 25, 1995, the Braves pulled off a mostly unnoticed waiver-wire deal, acquiring outfielder Mike Devereaux from the White Sox. All the veteran did was play in 13 postseason games, hit .308 in the NLCS en route to MVP honors, and provide the missing piece to the only World Series champion this city has known.

    This time around, the missing piece or pieces require a far, far heavier investment. But the Braves have the payroll flexibility beyond this season and a pantry full of high-end prospects to make the right deal before this month ends. It would not cripple the future, and could result in this year’s team ending October in a place none of us dreamed it could reach even a few short months ago:

    Standing alongside its 1995 counterparts, as World Series champions.

    It’s worth the shot to try and get there.

    Now.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    Red-Hot Braves Soar to Chicago After Another Wild, Winning Weekend

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – The avenues by which the Atlanta Braves find victory lane continue to pile up in a manner that leaves so many of us scratching our heads on an almost nightly basis, we find ourselves repeating the same word over and over again:

    “How?”

    How did that happen?

    How did they find a way?

    How in the world are they where they’re at, given some of the things that have – and have not – transpired?

    Consider the view this evening as the Braves fly toward Chicago and a four-game mid-summer set with the Cubs. The National League East lead, a sizable 6 ½ games as the charter flight wings its way toward the Windy City, sits safely tucked in the overhead bin. The rest of the division has melted down with the grace of a 7-year-old denied a second cookie at the Publix bakery, from Philadelphia’s stunning nose-dive toward .500 to the Mets physically and verbally threatening a media member.

    And in Washington? The Nationals welcomed Atlanta into town this weekend having won 17 of their previous 24 games to nudge within two games of .500 for the first time in two months. There was the thought a series victory could propel Washington into another favorable stretch of their schedule with a real shot to nudge within striking distance of the Braves by the time the two teams meet in Atlanta in mid-July.

    Yeah, about that.

    It figured the Braves would lose the one game in the series that drew the hottest glare of the spotlight, that being Friday’s series opener, when Dallas Keuchel’s Atlanta debut was marred by a pair of glitches by the otherwise-sparkling Braves infield defense. That was followed by another jarringly disappointing start by Mike Foltynewicz in Saturday’s middle game. In the city where he pitched in the All-Star game 13 months ago, Foltynewicz gave up eight runs in four-plus innings, thereby earning a ticket to Lawrenceville and the International League.

    And yet, somehow, the Braves won a game they had no business winning. Stop me if you’re heard that before. They trailed twice by four runs – a 5-1 deficit after three innings; an 8-4 gap entering the seventh – and pulled away for a 13-9 triumph, the fourth time in 2019 Atlanta has won a game in which it trailed by four or more runs. Entering Sunday’s series finale, there had been 79 instances this season in which a team trailed entering the eighth inning and prevailed. More than 10 percent of those victories – eight – are by the boys from Atlanta.

    Sunday brought another wild twist, albeit a scary one when young ace Mike Soroka was hit in the right forearm while batting in the third inning. The baby-faced Soroka grew up playing hockey in Canada, and The Kid from Calgary bore the look of a guy wanting to drop the gloves as he trudged to first base. His day over for precautionary reasons (absolutely the right call) left the much-maligned Braves bullpen, which despite solid work of late remains stoned nightly in the village square of public opinion, forced to cover seven innings.

    As it turned out, eight innings were required, and eight was enough. Josh Tomlin cruised through four of those innings on 43 pitches, but had not covered that many frames since May 7. The Braves saw Washington tie the game in the seventh, but their forgotten man impacted the game for a second-consecutive night. Johan Camargo, relegated to bench bat duty instead of super-utility, start-three-or-four-days-a-week status courtesy of mismanagement by Brian Snitker in the season’s first three months, blasted a two-run pinch-hit homer in the 10th. It came one night after a pinch-hit double tied Saturday’s contest at 9-all, setting the stage for Dansby Swanson’s go-ahead blast that put the Braves ahead to stay.

    The 800-pound gorilla in the room remains the final three outs, and far be it from me to criticize the job Luke Jackson has done in evolving in one year from three-time DFA to de facto closer. But a closer he’s not, even if he found a way on this day to get the final outs of a 4-3 victory that earned Atlanta yet another critical series triumph and certainly put a halt to the rising momentum Washington brought into the weekend. It is clear Alex Anthopoulos must address the back end of the bullpen, something he wasn’t able to do in the offseason.

    The feeling here is he will get it done leading up to the trade deadline.

    He has no choice. This team’s grit and resiliency demands it.

    Forty-eight hours of summertime, division-battling baseball. The Braves won two of three. They very easy could have swept. They also very easy could have been swept. Such is the narrow ledge teams walk as the weather heats up, the games get tight, and the lens on the standings comes with an increasing sharpness as the days fly off the calendar.

    The Braves could not have picked a better time to catch fire. Since Ronald Acuna Jr. and Swanson ascended to the 1-2 spots in Snitker’s lineup, Atlanta is 28-12. Since the morning of May 15, the date of Austin Riley’s big-league debut, the Braves have made up a staggering 10 games in the standings on Philadelphia, which has lost seven in a row and are 2-11 in its past 13 games after being swept at home by the Marlins.

    Stupid money never looked so dumb.

    In 40 years of watching Braves baseball, I’ve seen quite a bit, good and bad. What this team has done in the past 40 games ranks right up there. And the manner with which it’s winning games is so compelling. Some nights, it’s exhilarating. Some nights, it’s suffocating. Some nights, it’s exhausting. Regardless of the route, the nightly journey most often ends with another tick in the W column.

    So, it’s off to Chicago, where the Braves will meet the Cubs nearly three months after sweeping the north-siders in a three-game series at SunTrust Park. The Cubs have righted the ship since and enter the series holding a ½-game lead over Milwaukee in the NL Central. Were the playoffs to begin now, the two teams would match up in the NLDS, thereby avoiding the monsters from Los Angeles in the opening-round five-game set.

    Chicago’s hold on that spot is far more tenuous than Atlanta’s. The Cubs split a weekend series with the Mets, but own the second-best home record in the NL (only trailing the aforementioned Dodgers). Wrigley Field not only is a tough place for visiting teams to extract victories, it also is a hallowed hall of ball that sits on every baseball fan’s bucket list.

    I get to place that checkmark this week, attending my first regular-season Braves games outside of Atlanta. I’ll join the boys and plenty of good denizens of Braves Country in Chicago come Tuesday afternoon. It’s a personal footnote to what otherwise is the next chapter of what feels like a special season.

    The calendar tells us it’s far too early to start contemplating autumn, that the East is far from secured. But with each passing day, and each varying path to the latest victory, this team tells us otherwise.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    Braves Head West with Sense of Urgency After Wednesday Meltdown

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – There are certain defeats each season that feel like the proverbial kick in the, well, you know where. Then there are the couple of losses that feel like you’re flying down one of those old 10-foot metal slides we had at my elementary school, and just as you reach maximum speed and just before you reach the bottom, there’s that one little jerk in every fourth-grade class who sticks out his fist at the absolute worst possible time.

    Fifteen minutes later, when you’ve been convinced that, yes, you are medically OK and no longer a danger to land in suspension for strangling the instigator, the heartrate drops, you look around and try to figure out just what in the heck happened.

    Welcome to Wednesday for the Atlanta Braves.

    It flowed swimmingly for seven blissful innings in the matinee finale of a disappointing eight-game homestand, the NL East leaders building a 7-1 lead on a Boston squad that looks like – outside of Houston – a hands-down World Series title contender, but on this day fielding a junior-varsity squad on getaway day for the bunch with baseball’s best record.

    And then it all fell apart, in spectacular, slow-motion train-wreck fashion. The Braves endured their cruelest defeat of the season, a parade of relievers spitting the bit constantly and the infield defense cracking yet again in a six-run eighth to level the score, only to see Freddie Freeman put the Braves ahead again, only to see former friend Brandon Phillips, making his Boston debut, hit one halfway to his home in Stone Mountain with two outs in the ninth.

    Got all of that? If not, pull up a barstool. There’s plenty of Braves Country already here tonight, deep into a drowning of sorrows that resembles anything but a happy hour.

    The game came unhinged in a number of moments, but go big picture here. That portrait was splendid for the first six innings, as Mike Foltynewicz continued pitching like an ace and limited the Boston sub-varsity to two hits and one run while his teammates smashed out of a recent offensive funk. Foltynewicz threw a scant 87 pitches through six frames, and conventional wisdom dictated with the starting pitcher and his mates on cruise control, in a game which the Braves needed to win to finish the homestand at .500, in advance of a seven-game road trip to two locales in Arizona and San Francisco where the Braves typically play like crap, you keep it in fifth gear and keep on trucking.

    Then Brian Snitker fumbled the shifter, missed the clutch and pulled arguably his most bonehead move of the season.

    Yes, I love Snit and root for him. Yes, I know the players love him. Yes, I criticize his in-game management at times. Yes, he only can fire the bullets that have been loaded into the guy by Alex Anthopoulos. But this was over-management at its highest, worst-timed level. It triggered a series of dominos that eventually led to the Braves losing a game no team ever should lose, regardless if Boston rolled out maybe the best bench in baseball history in the late innings as the game morphed from a getaway-day play-it-out-and-fly-home, to a stirring victory on the Red Sox’s march to 110 victories.

    In fairness to Snitker, the very talented writer from The Athletic Atlanta and the Marietta Daily-Journal, Nubjyas Wilborn, shared with us tonight that Foltynewicz noticed his velo had dipped in the sixth inning, plus he was feeling the impact of the bone-spur issue that has impacted him at times this season.

    Still, it could not have resulted in a worse outcome. How so? If the Braves miss the playoffs, Wednesday might cost Brian Snitker his job. And that would be a shame given the job he’s done in steering this ship from the wreckage of 90 losses to surprise contention in a scant 28 months.

    But winning in October – the destination for a franchise stripped to the foundation, at a time that may not be now but darn well will be by 2019 – comes down to those tactical decisions. When you are in first place in a tightly contested playoff race, you ride your horses deeper in September than you do in April or May. That’s why this is the worst loss of the season. Miss me with the Cubs wind-and-rain-palooza at Wrigley in April. That was April.

    This is September, pennant-race baseball. It only gets hotter from here, and now the Braves fly across the continent with the unenviable task of washing away the most bitter loss of recent vintage and set their sights on two teams against which Atlanta is 1-5 this season.

    Yeah, that painful feeling just came back in the pit of your stomach, didn’t it?

    Having to cover nine outs with a bullpen that’s struggled at times and has a multitude of arms at or approaching career highs in innings is different from covering six outs. Snitker loosened the lid of the jar and unleased the fury, but there also is responsibility for the folks who took the ball.

    Dan Winkler had surrendered three hits in his past nine appearances before beginning the eighth inning by giving up four hits in a row.

    Jonny Venters, he of the 3 ½ Tommy John surgeries, made his fourth appearance in seven days, giving up one hit and two runs. Both Venters and Brad Brach, who had allowed two hits total in his previous seven outings, each saw a pair of inherited runners score.

    While all this chaos was breaking loose on the mound, an Atlanta defense that is playing tighter as the calendar gets deeper into September reared its ugly-of-late head at the absolute worst moment. Johan Camargo bobbled a potential inning-ending double-play ball and then sailed the throw past fill-in first baseman Ryan Flaherty – remember, the Braves were up big, and Freeman did not start for the first time this season. Turning two there ends the inning with Atlanta ahead 7-5.

    In the previous 41 games leading into the homestand, the Braves allowed 11 total unearned runs. Care to guess how many Atlanta gifted to opponents during the eight games at SunTrust Park? Yep, you guessed it: 11.

    Freeman did his part to save the day, belting a dramatic homer in the eighth that put the Braves ahead by one. But all that did was set the stage for Phillips, the Atlanta-area native who endeared himself with fans during his brief stint with his hometown squad last season, so much so that he drew a nice round of applause before his first at-bat.

    His last at-bat deflated those left in the ballpark, save the thousands of Red Sox fans who infiltrated STP and The Battery throughout the series.

    It now remains to be seen how deflated Atlanta is moving forward. One thing about these Braves is they’ve proven resilient beyond their years at every crossroads this season. That’s a big reason why, for all the gore and angst of Wednesday, Atlanta will arrive in Phoenix leading the East with 22 games to go.

    But a cautionary tale, especially with seven games remaining against the Phillies in the season’s final 11 days. These are the types of defeats that have felled many a talented team amid the glow of a pennant race. A loss like this at this point in the calendar doesn’t just highlight a missed opportunity within a singular 24-hour window, but can pull a team into a tailspin that its players and fan base spend months, if not years, lamenting.

    Was Wednesday’s loss that bad? We’re about to find out.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.