• J.T. Realmuto

    2019 BRAVES SEASON PREVIEW: Questions Aplenty, but Braves Squarely in Mix to Defend East Title

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – Perspective is what it is, but we all know the events of the day – heck, even the minute – can shape where one stands. That’s the way the world works today, the latest soundbite or tweet or quick-take analysis trying to impact what one feels at their core.

    I began this exercise of previewing the 2019 Atlanta Braves by taking a look back at two pieces I authored for this site in the past 12 months. The first one, penned in the days before the magical 2018 season began, the second one, written in the hours after Atlanta’s season concluded with a Game 4 loss to the Dodgers in the NL Division Series.

    It didn’t take long to realize how the viewpoint evolved from last March – when the Braves were coming off a trio of 90-loss campaigns – to October and the end of arguably the most meaningful season this fanbase experienced in a generation. Now, the first glimpses of a new season’s dawn beckons just below the horizon, warm sunshine following a winter filled with enough darkness and angst, fake rumors and frustrating reaction to another player joining another NL East rival, to last a lifetime.

    We won’t dive too much into the groundswell of frustration around the fanbase given Atlanta’s lack of activity since Game 4 ended. For better or worse, we’re about to find out if Alex Anthopoulos’ measured approach to the winter of 2018-19 proves to be the stuff of genius, or represents a grand opportunity missed.

    The one big move Atlanta made figures to pay big dividends, provided of course that good health keeps Josh Donaldson on the field. The right-handed slugger has something to prove, inking a one-year contract to rebuild his value after injuries scuttled his 2018. Make no mistake, the Auburn boy brings passion and fire to everything he does, from batting practice to game time. Donaldson makes an intriguing offense all the more potent, his bat in the 2-hole adding to a formidable threat alongside MVP-candidate Freddie Freeman in the third spot and reigning NL rookie of the year Ronald Acuna Jr. sliding into cleanup.

    And that’s where the questions begin. Atlanta’s inability to land another impactful bat, plus Donaldson’s preference to hit second, leaves Brian Snitker no choice but to put the wonderkid Acuna in the fourth spot and not at leadoff, where the now 21-year-old destroyed NL pitching in the second half last summer. Acuna will get his, as they say, regardless if he hits first, fourth or seventh. The kid simply possesses such rare generational talent that it’s not audacious to put him, entering his first full major-league season, on the short list of league MVP candidates. Whether he stays in the cleanup spot long term or is bumped back to leadoff depends in large part on how a pair of critically important Braves fare hitting at the top of the order.

    Ender Inciarte and Ozzie Albies were key components of Atlanta’s first division championship squad since 2013, Inciarte winning his third-consecutive Gold Glove while Albies wowed everybody during a breathless first half that landed him in the All-Star game. Both are outstanding defensively. But Inciarte again struggled mightily at the plate in the first half and Albies scuffled against right-handed pitching during a subpar offensive second half. The plan initially is for Inciarte to bat leadoff against righties and Albies to anchor the spot against southpaws. It could work out splendidly. It also could go south and get ugly, quickly.

    There are other options available to Snitker as the Braves figure to employ more versatility in the lineup given Johan Camargo now slides into a super-utility role, Donaldson will require some rest, and Dansby Swanson’s leash appears shorter after a 2018 marked by lengthy offensive struggles and an injured wrist that hindered him more than anyone knew. Nick Markakis returns on a team-friendly deal, and the Braves have to hope the 2019 body of work bears more resemblance to his All-Star first half and not the mediocre second half that led many people (myself included) to demand a significant upgrade in right field.

    The Braves won 90 games a season ago, but there are more than enough questions offensively even with the presence of Acuna, the steadiness of Freeman and the impact of a healthy Donaldson. Again, Atlanta may rue the decision not to add another big bat to the lineup (such as catcher J.T. Realmuto, over the platoon of Tyler Flowers and old friend Brian McCann), especially if Markakis hits as he did in August-September, Inciarte hits as he did in April-July and Albies doesn’t quell his homer-happiness tendencies from the left side.

    Spring has provided plenty of positive evidence, although we roll out the old axiom: it’s just spring training. Albies and Swanson both have adjusted their stances and the results have been promising, Albies collecting two hits off righties in Monday’s exhibition victory over Cincinnati at SunTrust Park, while Swanson drilled opposite-field homers in the final two spring games. Markakis has produced steadily, wrapping up spring with a .387 average and a .988 OPS.

    But the biggest questions around this team entering the season revolve around the pitcher’s mound where, for all their depth and waves of young talent, the mere fact Julio Teheran is starting Thursday’s season opener at Philadelphia speaks volumes. And while the veteran pitched well in spring training, that fact Teheran will make his sixth-consecutive opening-day outing is not what anybody expected when this team left SunTrust Park after the NLDS. I would’ve bet cold cash in the moments after Game 4, a game in which Teheran pitched in mop-up duty as the Braves season drew its final breaths, that I would throw as many pitches for Atlanta in 2019 as Teheran.

    All-Star and staff ace Mike Foltynewicz is down with an elbow issue and likely will not return to the majors until late April. Kevin Gausman is working his way back from shoulder soreness, although the Braves say he should be ready to start April 5 against Miami. Sean Newcomb could not throw strikes at all for most of camp, a disturbing trend for the lefty who was an All-Star candidate in the first half, and he needs more outings like the four innings, no walks performance against Cincinnati in the spring finale. The good news is several of those heralded young arms – namely Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright and Max Fried – pitched well in camp and will at least begin the season in majors (Wilson and Wright drawing starting assignments two and three in Philly this weekend).

    That says nothing of the bullpen, where co-closer A.J. Minter and veteran Darren O’Day begin the season sidelined with ailments. Arodys Vizcaino looked good late last season, but has been hindered by shoulder issues throughout his career, placing a heavy emphasis from the jump on several arms that were good at times a season ago before tiring (Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle), guys with little experience (Chad Sobotka), and one guy who I saw pitch for High-A Lynchburg in Myrtle Beach nearly five season ago who earned his first opening-day assignment in the bigs after a fantastic spring (Wes Parsons, the feel-good story of camp).

    That sounds dire, but let’s breathe for a minute. By the end of April, Atlanta figures to have Minter and O’Day back with Vizcaino at the end of the bullpen, the immensely talented Mike Soroka (again sidelined by a shoulder injury in early spring) working back toward form, and Touki Toussaint hopefully putting a rough spring behind him by getting into a rhythm at Triple-A. The Braves have enough depth, albeit a sizable portion of it unproven at the big-league level, to survive at least initially, but no team is going to sustain itself for long with that many critical arms on the shelf.

    The Braves rode the wave of emotion from being a contender for the first time in a half-decade last summer. How will they respond to being the hunted? After all, the three other relevant teams in the division (sorry but not sorry, Marlins) all made themselves better. Even without Bryce Harper, the Nationals offense looks formidable and they added Patrick Corbin to the rotation. Harper and Realmuto hope to erase the stench of Philly’s late-season stumble. The Mets were quietly good the final three months of last season, then added Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.

    But that’s not to say the Braves are destined to finish fourth. For the questions, the injuries, the moves not made, this remains a very good team, one more than capable of winning this division. Atlanta arguably is one of the top defensive teams in baseball. The lineup possesses a tantalizing mix of power and speed. The kids are a year older, with a pennant race and playoff series now on their resume. Even incremental improvement from several of the young core components of this team could result in the Braves of ’19 being better than their immediate predecessor.

    Remember, the window to contend was supposed to be just cracking open this season. The Braves shattered that double-pane glass all over the NL East a season ago, so it’s not surprising to see the other teams in the division react accordingly over the winter. As always, there is a ceiling and a floor with every team as a season commences. This Braves squad feels like it has more variance than one would expect from a team returning many key components (and many of those components being young players with sizable upside) from a division winner.

    At one end of the spectrum: Acuna proves he is human by enduring some semblance of a sophomore slump, Albies continues struggling against right-handers, Inciarte gets out of the gate slowly in the first half, Donaldson is hampered by injuries, the pitchers heal slower than expected, Teheran deals with velocity issues and the subsequent barrage of homers that come with it, Foltynewicz can’t get healthy, Newcomb can’t throw strikes, the bullpen is a revolving mess, and the Braves finish fourth in the East, winning 78 games.

    Given last season’s success, that floor feels woeful, but the ceiling is just as wonderful. Acuna becomes a top-10 player in the sport and pushes hard for a MVP award, Freeman is right there with him, Donaldson plays 130 games and looks like his 2016 version of himself (arguably giving Atlanta three bona fide MVP candidates), Inciarte and Albies anchor the leadoff spot effectively, Swanson takes a step forward with good health, Camargo becomes a versatile sparkplug off the bench, Folty builds off his 2018, Newcomb finds his control and takes his next step forward, Gausman and Teheran and at least one of the kids settle the remainder of the rotation, Vizcaino-Minter-O’Day form a solid back end of the bullpen, and the Braves repeat in the East, winning 94 games.

    Of course, truth almost always resides in the middle, although I’m bullish at the moment on more things breaking right than not for this bunch. The East will be a bloodletting all summer, with four teams taking turns beating up each other while taking turns pummeling the Marlins. And perhaps that patience Anthopoulos showed this winter will pay off this summer, as the Braves acquire a closer or an impact bat to tilt the razor-thin balance of power their way.

    Short of one more piece added to either the back end of the bullpen or the offense, I have cause to pause in picking Atlanta to repeat in the East. For all the bluster about the moves made in Philadelphia and New York, I do think the most-rounded team in the division resides in the nation’s capital. I believe by the end of September, the four-team jousting match for the East crown will morph into two tightly separated camps: Washington and Atlanta occupying one group, the Phillies and Mets remaining one tiny step behind.

    What does that mean on Sept. 30, the day after the regular season ends? While it’s foolish to predict a tie and a 163rd game, if there ever was a division where it made sense to call that madness six months in advance, it’s this division, this season. The feeling here is Atlanta and Washington meet for the division title the day after the regular season concludes, on the final day of the month, each having won 89 games on the nose, with the Phillies and Mets sitting just a sliver behind with 86 and 84 wins, respectfully.

    It results in Atlanta reaching the 10th month of the season again, another welcome to Choptober. It’s a team that invariably will go through its share of fits and starts but, with the talent assembled and the experience of a magical emergence one year prior, stands primed to get back to last season’s apex, with a chance to push that bar even further into autumn this time around.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    The (Off)season of Discontent: Braves Fans Upset by Lack of Action

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – You lived it. I lived it. We all lived it. The Triple-A lineups. The retread pitchers. The mismatches. The hopelessness. The trades of so many players we loved for guys we’d never heard of – some of whom we would fall in love with as time unfolded. The 95 losses followed by the 93 losses followed by the 90 losses. The move to a new, beautiful home, tinged by public outrage of a deal perhaps done outside the scope of public scrutiny despite plenty of public dollars being involved.

    The iconic country music group Alabama once upon a time sang, “We had to break it all down to build it back up,” a key lyric in their song “Here We Are” that, ironically, was part of the TBS 1991 highlight film. And it is true. The Atlanta Braves indeed broke it all down, stripped to the nubs, to build it back up to a point where the tomahawk represented something far beyond a reminder of yesteryear glories. All of this pain, all of this embarrassment, would pay off in a big way, a way we hadn’t seen in these parts in two decades.

    But a couple of funny things happened during the well-thought out rebuild plan, both of which fell out of the sky with equal parts suddenness and breathlessness. The strategic architect ran afoul of Major League Baseball rules regarding international signings and earned a lifetime ban. The season after, with his banished fingerprints remaining all over the team, the Braves won 90 games and captured the National League East championship.

    Cue Alex Anthopoulos, who entered the fray as general manager weeks after former GM John Coppolella was banned, and the engaging, impressive general manager helped bolster Atlanta’s crashing of the 2018 postseason party. Everything broke right. The Braves took advantage, flipping a city upside down and rekindling a fire within the fanbase that had sat dormant for five years. All of this set up an offseason during which many thought Atlanta would advance from breakthrough to behemoth, from playoff qualifier to World Series championship contender.

    Welcome to the second week of March, and Braves Country is in flames.

    And I don’t blame it one dang bit.

    Atlanta struck quickly in the offseason, signing Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann in the blink of an eye on Cyber Monday. The Braves brought back Nick Markakis to man right field at a sizable discount, a move I would not have made, but after not being able to lure Michael Brantley off the open market or pry Mitch Haniger from Seattle, probably made sense (my fear of regression notwithstanding).

    Atlanta did try and get Bryce Harper, but the Scott Boras effect won out in the end and Harper was rewarded with a 13-year deal. No, the Braves should not have committed to any player through 2031. But while we won’t know how creative Atlanta got in the negotiations, acquiring a player of Harper’s ilk instantly would’ve vaulted last season’s feel-good story into the championship conversation.

    And that’s part of where the angst begin. No, you’re not giving Andrew McCutchen the money Philly gave him. You’re not giving Harper the years Philly gave him. You’re not signing Patrick Corbin to six years, like Washington did. The problem is, both of those teams reside in the same division as Atlanta. Same with the Mets, who bolstered their bullpen and augmented their starting lineup with diversity that, if health abides, should make a team that went 38-30 over the second half even better.

    Boys, you only get the potentially epically bad Marlins 19 times over 162 games. Oh, and did we mention the one lone game-changing asset Miami had, J.T. Realmuto, also landed in Philadelphia?

    There is a method to the madness. Braves fans have had that narrative shoved down their throats at every turn since the start of November. To a certain extent, it’s valid. But only to a certain extend. And the cockiness of late displayed by the powers that be, to be frank, is becoming a bit much.

    The next time we hear from Braves chairman Terry McGuirk will be too soon. McGuirk is on record numerous times during the losing years about working to be in position to strike when the team turned a corner. Corner turned. The result? Mostly crickets.

    Enough, already. This insulting stance of stating over and over (and over) again that you’re able to do anything payroll-wise without signoff from faceless, non-local, uncaring Liberty Media corporate is a joke, and McGuirk would be best served by not trotting out that line as if the fanbase is full of gullible sheep. We all see right through it.

    Seriously, Terry? You want us to believe a public corporation that finished with $8.04 billion in revenue in 2018 actually would allow any of its business units to spend eight, nine figures in a vacuum without corporate oversight. Guess what? Not only do fans read the stats and know Tyler Flowers can’t hit right-handers, we also can (and do) read the 10-K and 10-Q reports.

    It puts Anthopoulos in a tough spot, to be honest. Engaging and open, a very likable part of this organization, we all understand AA’s past aggressiveness always didn’t pan out (he did trade Noah Syndergaard as the young centerpiece for R.A. Dickey, after all). To his credit, Anthopoulos has recalled several moves he made in Toronto that were geared toward building buzz and momentum in the offseason as transactions that didn’t pan out.

    But what if AA had been the original architect of the great Braves rebuild of the 2010s? What if he was here for the butt-whippings at Turner Field in 2015 and 2016, when such luminaries as Daniel Castro and Eury Perez manned the starting eight? Would have he been more inclined to lean into this offseason had he been here and suffered like the rest of us? And what in the heck is he supposed to say when his boss, McGuirk, continues spewing the corporate lines?

    I understand being strategic and pragmatic and measured, I do. It’s the right course to take most of the time. But not always. Circumstances at times dictate a deviation, a seizing of the moment. Those times when you dance in front of everybody like no one is watching, when you tell the interviewer why they are fools if they don’t hire you, when you kiss your secret crush regardless of who’s around.

    Those times when you go for it, color a bit outside the lines in order to accelerate the path forward. When the window opens earlier than expected, it’s OK to jump a bit higher than otherwise, especially when you still have one of the best and deepest farm systems in the game.

    For better or worse, this organization has decided not to do that. And if it doesn’t result in a step deeper into October, that will rest solely at the feet of the powers that be … and if it happens, the next offseason won’t be pretty.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    Settling on Markakis cannot signal end of Braves moves

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – It’s funny, if not downright ironic. Nick Markakis is the consummate professional, a man’s man who never shows emotion, speaks quietly to the media (when they can drag a quote out of him), and just goes out and does his job, for better or for worse. This is not the type of player who sparks divisive debate and impassioned argument among a fan base.

    But in the moments after the Atlanta Braves announced the 35-year-old right fielder would return on a one-year, $4-million deal for 2019, social media became lit, as the kids say. And there was no middle ground, with reaction falling into one of two camps:

    • Absolutely outstanding to bring back a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner who earned his first career All-Star berth.
    • Absolutely inexcusable to bring back a mid-30s outfielder who slashed .258/.332/.369 in the second half and went 1-for-12 in the NLDS.

    The stats in the second bullet were pulled from a notes file I compiled in looking back on 2018, a season that saw the Braves slam shut the rebuild and fling open the window to compete. In no way was Atlanta capable of a World Series run a season ago, but entering 2019, expectations have changed. Hence why, within that notes file buried on my hard drive, I typed the following in my Markakis section:

    “Expect him to be elsewhere in 2019.”

    Yeah, about that …

    I am among those who voiced my, shall we say, displeasure with what I feel on the surface is the Braves settling for the status quo one season later, in a division that is markedly better, with a team that cannot be satisfied with just a winning season in 2019. Markakis’ second-half swoon may be a by-product of fatigue from his insistence to play every single day – an approach that absolutely cannot be repeated – or it could be a signal of regression for a player who slashed .272/.350/.391 in his two seasons before 2018.

    And that’s not bad. Not at all. But it’s nowhere close to the .323/.389/.488 slash line Markakis put up through the first half of the season. In other words: the feeling that Markakis’ first four months were more of an anomaly than the norm isn’t just a stance to back up an opinion. It’s a fact.

    What’s also a fact is this team, like it or not, now is viewed through a different lens. Sorry folks, that what happens when you start winning. And if you’re going to have a mid-30s outfielder posting a season OPS+ of 97 (his average for 2016-17 before a 117 last season), you’re going to need big-time offensive performances from several other spots in the lineup to be a World Series contender.

    Yes, Ronald Acuna Jr. turned the baseball world upside down, Freddie Freeman was an MVP candidate until a late-season slump, Ozzie Albies was an All-Star (he also struggled in the second half), and in Josh Donaldson, Atlanta has the potential to possess the MVP-caliber thumper this lineup needs to go with Freeman in the lineup. But Acuna enters his first full big-league season, Freeman turns 30 in September, Albies begins his second full major-league campaign, and Donaldson has battled injuries the past two seasons.

    In other words, right field felt like a natural place to chase an upgrade. And let it be known, the Braves chased. Michael Brantley wasn’t coming here because he wanted to play in Houston, with no state income tax and for a team that won 103 games last season and the World Series the autumn before. Atlanta was not going to pay Andrew McCutchen the stupid money Philadelphia did (rightly so). They like A.J. Pollock but not at the years/money for a talented yet oft-injured outfielder on the other side of 30. Carlos Gonzalez’s splits away from Denver scared them (again, rightly so). Adam Jones arguably is as big of a regression candidate as Markakis.

    Don’t like the Markakis signing and want to be mad about it? Direct your anger toward Phoenix and Seattle. Arizona tore down part of its core and yet, insists on not trading David Peralta as the Diamondbacks front office holds illusions of competing. Seattle has “reimagined” its roster but refuses to deal Mitch Haniger – understandable considering the club control of the rising star.

    On the surface, Atlanta realistically never could have been in on Bryce Harper, although I’ve said all winter he would be the absolute perfect fit in right field and the cleanup spot. The Braves, even if they were awash with a $200 million payroll, could not do a 10-year deal for anybody, not with the names hitting free agency after 2021 (Freeman, Mike Foltynewicz), 2022 (Dansby Swanson), 2023 (Albies, Sean Newcomb, Johan Camargo), 2024 (Acuna, Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint), etc.

    A shorter deal with opt-outs and a high AAV always was the only realistic path, and there is no doubt in my mind Atlanta went there with Harper. Whether it was shot down immediately or considered somewhat seriously, who’s to say? Harper, of course, remains unsigned.

    Markakis truly is one of those guys you want on your team, but his presence should not preclude Atlanta from trying to bolster the offense as we approach spring training. Does that mean J.T. Realmuto and the never-ending soap opera with the dysfunctional Miami front office reaches its long-overdue finale? Does that mean another push for Peralta or Haniger? Or, using some reverse thinking here, does it mean Atlanta finally trades some of its prized prospects for a true ace (Corey Kluber)? With Markakis signed for a small price, do the Braves look to the reliever market (hey, aren’t you Craig Kimbrel)?

    There are positives in bringing back Markakis, of course. You know what you’re going to get. Hard work. Discipline. Leadership. No distractions.

    It would be folly to expect a full season of what Markakis provided in the first half of 2018. But let’s hope what we see this season is closer to that and not a continued downward trend toward the final three months of last season. Because at the end of the day, the answer to that question may turn out to be the biggest one in determining if October baseball awaits for a second consecutive season.

    There will be plenty of rightful second-guessing of Alex Anthopoulos for this signing if it doesn’t.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    Braves Dealing? All Eyes on Anthopoulos As Trade Deadline Nears

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – Ponder if you will what must be going through the mind of one Alex Anthopoulos at this moment.

    Rewind to November, when the new Atlanta Braves general manager began surveying the landscape of the franchise he had just joined, gazing at promising young talent as far as the eye could see. He had inherited one of baseball’s most-stacked farm systems, with a promising wave of transitional talent having just or poised to break above the surface and into the starting lineup at SunTrust Park.

    One would think – amid the preparation for the upcoming Winter Meetings in December – Anthopoulos fretted little about July. After all, there would be a half-season in the books by then, and countless hours watching play, talking to and of, and otherwise analyzing all these assets suddenly at his disposal.

    But in any idle moments where his mind skipped ahead eight months, did he ever suspect these Braves would arrive at the second week of July, one week shy of the All-Star break, in a virtual tie for first place in the National League East, one of four NL squads with 50 victories, one that finds them at an accelerated crossroads?

    Yeah, not a chance.

    For all the bullishness and the “we expect to win” mentality every executive must pontificate in the early days of spring, the fact remains these Braves have surpassed even the most glass-three-quarters-full optimist’s hopes and dreams. And for all the fun that winning unleashes – and after four seasons that contained more than their fair share of baseball nuclear winter, this organization and its fanbase deserve this – it also brings to bear a very fundamental question:

    What does Anthopoulos do across the next three weeks?

    There are two vastly different camps that have emerged in Braves Country, each defending their premise with a stubbornness that illustrates, if nothing else, how deeply fans care about this franchise:

    One camp says to seize on this moment from the baseball heavens, that for all the promise of tomorrow and the depth of the minor-league system and the feeling this organization will contend well into the next decade, every chance to win is uniquely precious. All it takes is one opportunity to get into the postseason party, especially in an NL that is so wide open with no clear-cut favorite. The Braves have to put the hammer down and do what it takes to ensure they play into October, thus giving them a shot to ride that wave to the most improbable outcome of all.

    The other camp says this season is house money, like an extra helping of mashed potatoes and gravy, an unexpected opening of a window that will remain that way for years to come. The key to ensuring Atlanta stays in the mix well into the 2020s is to protect the tremendous depth of young and impactful talent, knowing the free-agent class this winter coupled with the amount of money coming off the books gives the Braves a shot at virtually anybody in baseball, be it through free agency or the trade market.

    This team is not good enough, as constituted, to win the World Series this season. There is no guarantee any series of moves would be enough to deliver a series victory over the three-header monster lording over the American League. But don’t you owe it to your players, your staff, your organization and your fans, to do everything in your power to take a shot that never is guaranteed to be there in autumns to come, regardless of price or impact down the road?

    Truth lies on both sides, if we’re being honest. The sheer fact it’s July 9 and I’m writing about the Braves potentially making moves that could vault them from surprising division leader to pennant favorite tells you everything you need to know about the vast madness that baseball is capable of unleashing in any one particular season. It also tells you winning never is guaranteed, no matter what prospect rankings and fantasy projections foretell.

    The rental market valuation will drop the closer we get to the July 31 trade deadline, but there are difference-making rentals available. One Manny Machado, inserted into the lineup in Los Angeles or Milwaukee or Philadelphia or Atlanta or Arizona or Chicago, makes that franchise the odds-on NL favorite instantaneously. But at what price for, perhaps, only 60 or 70 days of service before the riches of free agency beckon?

    Is it worth giving up four prospects, at least two and perhaps three of the premium variety? In essence, in a 4-for-1 trade, you’re dealing up to 24 years of control for what you consider potential impact pieces for your team into the middle of the next decade, for an eight-week rental that may or may not get you past the wild-card game?

    What won’t dissipate is the price for controllable talent. It’s one thing to say, “go get J.T. Realmuto or Brad Hand?” It’s another thing altogether when you consider the years of control at friendly salary. The cost of those deals is going to hurt in a big way. Is the control beyond 2018 moving forward worth the cost in prospect capital?

    One has to think, between Thanksgiving dinner plans and learning how many Peachtrees thoroughfares exist in Atlanta and where the Braves minor-league affiliates call home, that Anthopoulos never pondered these questions. Had July crossed his mind at the time, certainly his thoughts would’ve center on which veterans would be trade candidates and which prospects had earned a two-month audition to show what they can do at the major-league level, for a team likely fighting to reach .500.

    But the landscape, the expectations and yes, the immediate opportunity for his new employer, has changed vastly from those cool November days. Things are much warmer now, and Alex Anthopoulos sits squarely in a white-hot spotlight brighter than the Georgia summer sun.

    What he does in the next 22 days will resonate far beyond this October.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.