• Cristian Pache

    Reaching for the Ring: Braves 2021 Season Preview

    It’s Opening Day! The Window is Open and The Time is Now

    Play Ball!: The Atlanta Braves open the 2021 season Thursday at Philadelphia, kicking off a campaign the Braves hope will end with the franchise’s first World Series title since 1995.

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – I close my eyes, and I can feel the chill of that circular ballpark on that last Saturday night in October. I can hear the swell of anticipation in 51,000 voices, nervous and frantic and frightened simultaneously. I can see Marquis Grissom gliding to his right, a baseball off Carlos Baerga’s bat tumbling toward his glove, a season in its final breathless moment and a dream becoming reality.

    Winning the World Series. It’s the ultimate moment. Nothing beats it. Nothing tops it. Nothing compares to it. And you can hope and dream and envision and imagine what it is like, but nothing compares to that moment when it happens.

    It’s been 9,286 days since I sat in the upper deck of Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium and watched the Atlanta Braves beat the Cleveland Indians in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series, a 1-0 victory on Oct. 28, 1995. Not a day has passed since when I haven’t thought about the next title, the next celebration, the next parade, the next moment this franchise will stand again in the hall of champions.

    The Glory Never Fades: The newspapers may be yellowed from time, but the feeling of winning the World Series never goes away.

    The Braves of 2021 arrive at Thursday’s first pitch in Philadelphia carrying the pain of falling five victories shy last season of becoming the fourth team in franchise history to win the World Series. That 3-1 lead in the NLCS to Los Angeles stings, a lesson learned in painful fashion, but oftentimes an apprenticeship of sorts must be served before the grandest reward is realized.

    Entering the offseason, Alex Anthopoulos had two absolute, must-dos on his list: improve the starting rotation, and re-sign Marcell Ozuna. Teams this close to a championship can’t play the “hope some of the kids figure it out” card, and teams certainly can’t let a guy like Ozuna – the perfect fit behind NL MVP Freddie Freeman in the lineup and in the clubhouse – get away.

    Back in the Mix: Marcell Ozuna flirted with the Triple Crown in 2020, and returns to the Braves on a four-year deal.

    To Anthopoulos’ credit, he accomplished both. Drew Smyly is a curious gamble that could pay big dividends at the back end of the rotation. Charlie Morton made sense on every level – his postseason pedigree the biggest lure of all. They join ace-in-the-making Max Fried, ace-on-the-mend Mike Soroka, and the wunderkid Ian Anderson – one of the young arms who at 22 years old appears to have figured it out – to form one of baseball’s best starting quintets.

    Ozuna contended for the Triple Crown in his first season with Atlanta, making more than enough of a case for the Braves to swallow hard while he plays left field in 2021 (he’s not looked bad in camp; with that said, hurry back, designated hitter). With Ozuna mixing it up and back in the fold, the top six in Brian Snitker’s batting order is as good as any in the sport. Certainly, there figures to be some regression from the output across a 60-game season, and while Atlanta won’t have to average 5.8 runs per game to win 90-plus games, this offense will generate plenty of support. Given the bolstered rotation – further boosted by Soroka’s possible return from a torn Achilles by the end of April – the Braves look every bit like a World Series championship contender.

    Ronald Acuna Jr. showed up at camp looking leaner than a season ago, when a wrist injury hampered his otherwise otherworldly skill set. Acuna looks like he’s on the verge of a breakout season, a laughable statement considering he hit 41 homers with 37 steals in 2019. He’s one of the sport’s brightest stars at 23 years old, a generational talent who figures to push heavily for his first MVP award in 2021.

    He’ll try to wrestle that trophy away from Freddie Freeman, the lifelong Brave who finally is getting his flowers nationally following a spectacular 2020. One of the great joys of last season was seeing the laurels cast upon the face of the Braves (sorry, Johan Camargo), the one pillar who endured through the rebuild. Freeman shined in the NLCS and looks poised to have another fantastic year, and the Braves will need it.

    Chasing the Ring: Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman comes into 2021 after winning the NL MVP award, and takes aim at the one thing missing from his resume: a World Series title.

    There are a few chinks in all this shiny armor, and they provide enough reason to at least pause. Can Austin Riley find his footing offensively? It’s the biggest X-factor for me entering the season, and it’s the one place where I could see the Braves pivoting by the trade deadline. Can the bullpen overcome the losses of three veteran right-handers? I’m pretty bullish here. Will Smith looks like the Will Smith we saw slamming the door for the Giants in 2018-19, and all Chris Martin does is throw strikes. Can A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek come close to their stellar – and surprising – 60-game campaigns of last season? Jacob Webb will play a big role, after starting the season at the alternate site because he has options.

    Webb has been brilliant the past two seasons, but health has been an issue. Health indeed is critical for this team; it is for every team, but it’s amplified for the Braves because of a bench that looks underwhelming at the moment, to put it nicely. It may seem a small quibble for a team so good, but the difference between winning a World Series and losing the first week of October is razor thin. The bench will evolve; it always does. But the thought of Pablo Sandoval or Ehire Adrianza (both who earned their roster spots with amazing springs) playing every day due to a significant injury is not pleasant.

    They say strength up the middle of the diamond is foundational to building a good team. For the brilliance of Acuna and the steadiness of Freeman and the potential of Riley, I keep coming back to that saying. Travis d’Arnaud was amazing in the shortened season, the catcher arguably becoming one of the steals of the previous free-agent market. Cristian Pache and his jaw-dropping defense take over in center field. He doesn’t have to hit for this team to win, albeit his at-bats in the NLCS were impressive. He will win games with an elite glove and a cannon of an arm, helping offset some of Ozuna’s limited defensive capabilities in left.

    Ready, Aim, Fire: Cristian Pache and his outstanding defensive skills take over in center field.

    Up the middle, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson begin their fourth full season together. Albies was banged up for the first two months of 2020, missing 31 games, but hit .338 with a .953 OPS upon returning in September and shined in the NLCS, batting .333 with two homers and five runs scored. Swanson enjoyed his best full season, posting a .274/.345/.464 slash line (all career highs, along with a career-best .809 OPS). The kid from Marietta finally was healthy, playing in all 60 games and leading the NL with 237 at-bats.

    Roll it all together, and you’ve got something. I’ve watched this franchise for more than 40 years. It means I’m old. It also means these aging blue eyes have seen a lot of Braves squads, good and bad, roll out of spring training. This is one of the best ones on my watch, and while there’s nits to pick, this team is good.

    Dang good.

    Good enough to win the World Series?

    In my opinion, absolutely.

    Getting out of the National League won’t be easy, even for a team as talented as the Braves. The Dodgers have seemingly unlimited resources and are baseball’s best squad. The Padres were the most active team this winter. The NL East has been billed as baseball’s best division, and it will be as tough as advertised.

    The Marlins aren’t that far away and would be a .500 team if they were in three of the other five divisions. Is this the year the Phillies put it together, with a bullpen that has to be better and a lineup featuring Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto? Philadelphia will find a way to stumble at some point, landing around .500 or a shade above.

    The other three teams will jockey for first place all summer. Washington’s hopes hinge on if Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg stay healthy. Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber join a lineup that includes the tremendous Juan Soto and the pesky (meant as a compliment) Trea Turner.

    The Mets made noise throughout the offseason, landing the brilliant Francisco Lindor and bolstering a bullpen that, if healthy, is going to be really good. Jacob deGrom is baseball’s best pitcher, but can that rotation survive a first half without Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco? And then there’s the “Mets” factor. They always seem to find a way to turn wine into water.

    Make no mistake: the Mets should be really, really good. But it won’t be enough to overtake the Braves. Not this year. In what will be a thrilling race not decided until the final week of the season, Atlanta captures its fourth consecutive division crown with 93 wins, four ahead of New York and six clear of the Nationals.

    As difficult as it will be, the East is just the appetizer. The main event comes in October. Yes, getting there is a big part of the battle, and the Braves will get that done. From there, it will be quite the gauntlet, especially considering the two behemoths out West. And the playoffs are the ultimate roll of the dice, a short sprint based on matchups and health and luck and weird bounces as much as sheer talent. That’s what makes winning the World Series – that glorious moment now more than 25 years ago – so difficult.

    But for the Braves of 2021, that’s the solitary objective:

    Win the World Series.

    For this team, this season, winning the ring is the only thing.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    That Time of Year Again: Big Goals, Bullpen Battles, and Hope in Abundance as Braves Start Spring

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – The feeling sitting by the lake Sunday was quite comfortable, and it had little to do with my fishing line in the water, the sun breaking through the clouds and the temperature nudging past 70 degrees.

    It had everything to do with the sounds coming through my headphones. The crack of the bat, the thud of a ball hitting the mitt, the scattered rumbling of fans – real people, not cardboard facsimiles – clapping as a baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays unfolded before their very eyes along Florida’s west coast.

    Spring training is off and running, and hopefully we continue rolling unabated toward April 1 and the Braves season opener in Philadelphia. Four games in the books – and if you care about the record, can I ask why, because it means absolutely nothing. Four afternoons of familiar sounds and warm thoughts of spring and welcoming voices on the mic and the hope that baseball season brings – a hope that feels a little more meaningful this time around.

    A few thoughts as the Braves continue their first week of Grapefruit League play:

    All Grown Up: I was struck listening to Freddie Freeman’s press conference Tuesday. It’s noteworthy when the reigning National League MVP speaks, certainly. But there was something in his voice, in his expressions, that depicted a man not only completely at peace with his present, but poised for the next step in his future.

    The MVP Is Here: Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman spoke at length with the media Tuesday.

    The story of the Freeman family expanding from three to five is heartwarming and inspiring, and adds yet another compelling chapter to what was a notable 2020 for the Braves first baseman. He’s the face of the franchise, the captain – I still would love to see a C on his jersey, a la hockey – and now at 31 years old, undoubtedly one of the top 10 players in the majors.

    The only thing missing from Freeman’s resume is something he alluded to with confidence and openness in his remarks: a World Series ring. He’s got a heck of a shot to get it, considering the combination of talent in the organization and the lessons learned from the past three Octobers. I suspect Freeman will hold court with the media again before the team breaks camp, after Atlanta and its leader agree on a richly deserved contract extension.

    Right from the Right Side: The Braves watched a trio of valuable right-handed relievers depart this offseason. And while Mark Melancon headed to San Diego and Darren O’Day signed with the Yankees (Shane Greene curiously remains unsigned), there is no shortage of candidates to fill that void. Two names stand out to me, both who are on the 40-man roster and both with intriguing potential, if – and there’s the caveat – they can stay healthy.

    Victor Arano posted a 9.1 strikeouts-per-nine ratio across 60 games in 2018 for the Phillies, finishing with a 1.197 WHIP. His 2019 season ended after just three games due to elbow surgery that May, and the 26-year-old was limited to 10 innings in the Mexican League last year. While his fastball sat in the mid-90s before the injury, what set Arano apart was the movement on his heater, slider and changeup.

    Braves fans are quite familiar with Jacob Webb, who has made 44 appearances across two injury-derailed seasons. An elbow ailment ended his 2019 campaign after Webb posted a 1.39 ERA and a 1.113 WHIP in 36 games, and a shoulder strain last summer shelved the 27-year-old after eight appearances. Control has been an issue – Webb has issued 17 walks in 42 1/3 big-league innings – but his stuff is plenty good enough.

    Good health this spring for both Arano and Webb – the same can be said for non-roster invitee Carl Edwards Jr. – could ease the concerns about the offseason veteran exodus and make for some interesting decisions come the end of the month.

    Let The Kid Play: More than once during the NL Championship Series, I wondered what it would be like to have four major-league at-bats then, suddenly, find yourself in the lineup playing every day against the best team in baseball for a trip to the World Series.

    Freeman wondered that, too, joking that he had no idea how super prospect Cristian Pache acquitted himself so well during the NLCS. Yes, Pache went just 4-for-22 against the Dodgers last fall, but the organization’s top prospect registered a hit with a RBI in four games, belted his first big-league homer, and impressed with the poise he displayed in running down balls in center field and grinding out at-bats.

    His Time Is Now: Cristian Pache is expected to begin the season as Atlanta’s starting center fielder.

    Sure, the Braves weren’t going to come out in February and name Pache the starter, especially with the proud veteran Ender Inciarte (he with the $8.7 million price tag) still around and looking to salvage his career. But make no mistake: center field is Pache’s to lose. He took a pitch on the outer half of the plate Monday against Boston and drove it with authority to right-center field, yet another impressive sign that the 22-year-old is ready for everyday duty in the bigs.

    Don’t Forget About Me: On a roster oozing with young talent – Pache, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, William Contreras, et al – it’s easy to get overlooked. But another 22-year-old in camp definitely deserves attention and, potentially, a shot to line up on the foul line for opening day ceremonies four weeks from Thursday.

    Huascar Ynoa landed in the Braves organization after a trade deadline deal for Jaime Garcia in 2017. He made his big-league debut in a blowout victory over the Phillies in 2019 and has made 11 appearances – five starts – across the past two seasons. The casual observer will recall his 92-pitch, one-hit, four-inning relief outing in the Game 3 NLCS blowout loss, but those who have watched Ynoa work know there is tons of potential in that right arm.

    Ynoa impressed in his spring debut Monday. I don’t focus on results too much this early in camp, but every time I watch this kid pitch, I want to see more. Control has been an issue so far, but with upper-90s gas and an impressive slider, it’s not difficult to envision Ynoa having a role with the big-league team – especially if Atlanta wants another power right-hander in the bullpen and the Triple-A season not starting until May.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    The Time Between: Cleaning Out the Notebook After a Remarkable Run and Before an Unpredictable Winter

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – The dream slips out the door and the numbness rushes in, like that first cool northwest breeze in autumn informing you those 90-degree days are soon to be a distant memory.

    There are reminders in the transition between the end of the run and the start of preparing for the next one – the time between, as I opined on social media – when you have a realization, a proverbial stubbing of your toe, that sends a painful “what could’ve been” coursing through your veins.

    That moment came during an innocent walk up the stairs from the Braves Room earlier today. I looked down at my Atlanta All-Star game 2021 T-shirt and it hit me: With one more run, one more play, one more win, Brian Snitker would have managed the National League All-Star team in his home ballpark next July.

    Hello, frosty wind. Where’s my hoodie?

    Welcome to that weird time between the conclusion of the Braves memorable 2020 season and the commencement of serious thought toward 2021 and beyond. No, I’m not ready to go there. Not yet. Not because I’m bitter or anything over the way the NL Championship Series ended – yes, you have to win a series you lead 3-1, but this wasn’t 1996 or 2019 or 2005 or 1998 or 2011 or several other undigestible finishes to seasons past.

    I’m not there because I’m taking a moment to pause, to reflect.

    To clean out the notebook, so to speak:

    Winning a championship isn’t easy. The sooner some realize that truth, the better – and I know it’s hard in this, “I want it yesterday and then I want another one right now, patience be darned” society in which we live. Or, as a mentor used to tell me while showing me after deadline what changes he made to my copy and why, “if this was easy, everybody would do it.”

    Nobody ever will associate patience or perspective with this fanbase (at least some of the louder segments online). Hey, I get it. It’s been 25 years (minus one week) since I sat in the upper reaches of Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium and watched Marquis Grissom glove the final out of the World Series. But if you’ve watched this franchise grow across the past three seasons and don’t think they will be among the short list of World Series championship contenders for the next several years, I don’t know what to tell you.

    Adam Duvall’s injury in his first at-bat of the NLCS was a bummer for a great dude whose power surge during the season was a sight to behold. I don’t think I’ve met one person who doesn’t love Duvall. But one man’s misery is another man’s moment, and boy, Cristian Pache sure did impress against the Dodgers. The quality of his ABs was far better than I expected. Defensively, he’s so smooth. Andruw-esque. Center field is his in 2021.

    The Braves have answered the Pache question. But let’s pump the brakes on the Drew Waters talk just a bit. Waters is a tantalizing talent, indeed, but struck out at an alarming rate in spring training before baseball shut down. Without a Triple-A season, I’d be hesitant to hand him left field come April.

    Waters, William Contreras, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Mueller. Four names that likely will impact the big-league Braves in the very near future. But due to 2020 being what it was, that time’s not here. Not yet. Soon, but not yet.

    The Braves have answered the Ian Anderson question, though. No more Triple-A for the 22-year-old unless he falls on his face. Barring injury or a bad spring, that kid should get the ball every fifth day for the big-league club. His playoff performance was beyond impressive, even grinding through his Game 7 start with subpar command. Anderson’s changeup is ridiculous, and he’s got a shot to be a fixture in Atlanta for a long, long time.

    It’s easy to talk about the kids for 2021. Free agents and trade targets, not so much. As baseball wraps up its final act of a season like no other, we now enter an offseason that holds the same description. What will teams do with payroll? What will the free-agent market look like?

    Nobody knows. Baseball’s never had a season where fans weren’t filling up the seats, buying nachos and beer and parking passes and T-shirts. Sure, operating expenses plunged along with revenue, but with no guarantees the stands will be packed come April, I’d expect front offices to enter the winter with at least some trepidation. (Cue the “Liberty Media is cheap” tweets.)

    And of course, it’s Major League Baseball. We have no idea when we’ll learn if the DH stays in the NL in 2021. That little trivial note will have a major impact on a particular right-handed slugger who sure did make the Braves of 2020 really good, and really fun.

    Yes, Freddie Freeman is a free agent after next season. No, it’ll never get to that point. Expect a lengthy extension to be announced before spring training.

    Mark Wohlers’ slider, Devonta Freeman’s missed block, Cliff Levington (and not Dominique Wilkins) having the ball in his hands, the Flames and Thrashers bolting north, the Falcons secondary making Danny White look like a Hall of Famer, second-and-26, Chris Burke, Sam Holbrook, a locked bullpen door in L.A., and any of a trillion other “oh God, Atlanta” moments have absolutely zero to do with missteps on the bases or Mookie Betts jumping out of the building.

    RIP the #RallyPotato. It was fun while it lasted. At least it vaulted Braves Twitter back into the national spotlight, albeit it with far less staying power than a certain golfer.

    Hat tip to the boys at Atlanta Baseball Talk, who are wrapping up their weekly Braves podcast after 14 years with episode No. 500 this weekend. To do a podcast for a year is a tremendous investment in time. Do it for 14 years? They deserve a spot in Monument Grove. Want to know how long they’ve been at it? Here’s the first episode, complete with reaction to the departure of Braves legend Bob Wickman.

    Thanks for setting the pace for the many great podcasts out there, fellas.

    Finally, I turned on Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday and watched until the Dodgers took control. I know plenty of people who didn’t, the pain of coming so close still too raw and festering to put the proceedings in Arlington on their TV. I understand. I did the same thing in 1993. After the Braves ran down the Giants in the last great pennant race, Atlanta ran out of gas against the less-talented Phillies in the NLCS.

    For the first time in my life, I refused to watch the World Series. Not until Game 6, when I was at a buddy’s house, and the game was on (they were a little more mature than my 20-year-old arrogant and stubborn self). I watched the bottom of the ninth and saw Joe Carter’s famous walkoff homer, realized how cool that moment was, and learned in that moment that no matter what, this beautiful game goes on.

    Much as our world does. No matter the heartbreak or challenge or failure we encounter, the world keeps spinning. We’ve been reminded of that many times over during the past few months. No matter what, the sun indeed rises in the east the next morning.

    And before you know it, that sun will ascend over baseball fields in Florida and Arizona, where pitchers and catchers will check in and kick off this journey once again.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    PARTY POOPERS: Dodgers Make Braves Pay for Missed Opportunities, Force NLCS to Game 6

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – This has nothing to do with curses and jinxes and narratives long since exhausted, and everything to do with lack of execution and failure to seize opportunities.

    Leave third base a bit early on a ball caught in the outfield? Don’t drive home runners in the early innings? Fail to throw strikes during a tight spot? Sometimes in the regular season, those details get glossed over amid the blur of the daily march to October.

    But when you reach the 10th month of the year, you have to be on point at all times. The Atlanta Braves fell short in too many of those moments in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series on Friday, and that’s the biggest reason they will face the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, instead of preparing for the World Series.

    The Braves had their chances but couldn’t take advantage, and the postseason-tested Dodgers made them pay in a 7-3 victory to keep their season alive. And while the Braves still lead the NLCS 3-2 and need just one win this weekend to capture the NL title and head to the World Series for the first time in 21 years, Friday served as a stinging reminder:

    Winning a pennant is not easy. They just don’t hand out trips to the Fall Classic like free samples at the mall food court. And the final win of a series is the hardest one to secure.

    If you get an opportunity, you best not waste it. If the disaster scenario unfolds this weekend and the Braves manage to lose games started by Max Fried (Saturday) and Ian Anderson (if Sunday’s Game 7 becomes necessary), they will rue the chances that slid through their fingers in Game 5.

    It started about as well as Brian Snitker could have dreamed. The Braves turned to A.J. Minter to kick off a bullpen game – welcome to life in 2020, with no off days in playoff series until next week. For Minter, it was his first start since his junior season at Texas A&M, and all the lefty did was strike out seven over three innings.

    Minter left with a 2-0 lead; it could’ve been more. The Braves collected five hits and two walks in the opening three innings, but scored only the pair of runs while stranding four runners on base.

    Atlanta actually put a third run on the scoreboard in the third, albeit briefly. Dansby Swanson’s sinking liner was snagged by Mookie Betts in right field, the former MVP stumbling as he picked the ball off his shoe tops. Marcell Ozuna, who began the inning with a single, left third base early and upon review was called out, the double play ending the inning.

    Regardless of how you feel about the whole momentum debate – which has raged across the airwaves and social media during this series – there’s no denying this game changed on the Ozuna blunder. The stumbles on this night don’t all fall on the loveable designated hitter, though.

    The Braves couldn’t cash in their chances in the early innings. It almost was jarring to see, considering Atlanta’s offense has scored four runs or more in one inning six times this postseason. In a bullpen game, a house of cards that can topple if just one reliever has an off night, three runs are not going to be enough most of the time.

    Not on this night, and certainly not against the Dodgers, who Friday played their 23rd NLCS game since 2016. And almost immediately after Ozuna’s run came off the board, Los Angeles did what the Braves could not.

    Take advantage.

    Corey Seager’s homer off Tyler Matzek in the fourth made it 2-1. And while the Braves still held the lead, you almost could feel what was coming next. Shane Greene wiggled out of trouble in the fifth, but left with two outs and one on in the sixth.

    Will Smith (the pitcher) came on and for the second straight night could not throw his slider for a strike, walking Max Muncy to extend the inning. That brought up Will Smith (the catcher), who golfed a 3-2 fastball into the left-field seats for a three-run homer and a 4-2 Dodgers lead.

    The Battle of Wills: The Dodgers catcher put Los Angeles ahead in Game 5 of the NLCS with a three-run homer in the sixth inning Friday.

    In the seventh, Jacob Webb was one strike away from getting out of the inning. Twice. Betts singled home a run on a two-strike pitch, and Seager followed with a two-strike, two-run homer.

    7-2 Dodgers. See you Saturday.

    Atlanta certainly wanted to spend the day shifting from pennant celebration to World Series preparation. There remains work to do, however. It’s playoff baseball, and the deeper you play, the more amplified the missed chances become. That’s part of it, a part the Braves and many members of their fanbase are learning on the fly.

    That’s not to suggest the Braves suddenly are gripped with overwhelming pressure. You can afford a stumble if you build a 3-1 series advantage, which the Braves did. Friday was Game 5, not Game 7. Fried pitched well in Game 1 and will be on full rest. Critical bullpen arms like Mark Melancon and Chris Martin also are fresh. Saturday is Snitker’s 65th birthday, and what would be a better present than a pennant and World Series berth?

    One also must think the Braves will have a heightened sense of urgency after a few stumbles Friday delayed the party for at least a day. The pressure remains squarely on the Dodgers, whose sole mission from the commencement of spring training is to win the World Series.

    But if this series isn’t over 24 hours from now, we’re having a completely different discussion.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    ON THE BRINK: Braves Bash Dodgers in Game 4, Sit One Victory from the World Series

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – The Atlanta Braves were pounded into submission in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series on Wednesday, and while they held a 2-1 advantage in the series even after allowing 11 runs in the first inning, you wouldn’t know it from listening to the national prognosticators who spent Thursday shoveling dirt on the Braves grave.

    This just in: those reports of the Braves demise were greatly exaggerated.

    And now, they’re one victory away from the World Series.

    Atlanta responded to that blowout loss with a breakout performance of its own, moving one step away from its first NL pennant and World Series trip in 21 years with a 10-2 rout of the mighty Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

    Catch your breath, folks. The Atlanta Braves, who 30 months ago were coming off four straight seasons of 89-plus losses, are THIS CLOSE to the Fall Classic. The sport’s grandest stage. A stage the franchise has graced just nine times since the NL and AL champs begin squaring off in 1903.

    They have three shots to punch their ticket, starting Friday night in Game 5. A fully rested Max Fried and Ian Anderson are lined up to start Games 6 and 7, if needed.

    Atlanta – and its championship-starved franchise – hope that’s not necessary. If Marcell Ozuna hits Friday like he did Thursday, you might as well print the T-shirts, snap some fake selfies and clear your calendar for next week. Ozuna helped fuel the Braves run to a third-consecutive NL East championship while putting up MVP-type numbers through the 60-game season, but has been relatively quiet in these playoffs.

    He entered Thursday hitting .200 in the postseason with a .565 OPS and 14 strikeouts in 35 at-bats. But the NL leader in homers and RBIs in the regular season was in the middle of things throughout Game 4, helping Atlanta deliver a definitive statement in a game that began with every member of the Fox Sports pregame crew (and honestly, probably 95 percent of the country) picking the Dodgers to even the series. David Ortiz lobbed the ultimate insult, picking Los Angeles to win 14-3.

    Yeah, about that, Big Papi.

    Ozuna became the first Braves player to homer twice in a postseason contest since Chipper Jones in the 2003 NLDS, and set a franchise record for most total bases in a playoff game with 11. He finished 4-for-5 with three runs scored and four RBIs, mixing it up and taking selfies the whole way.

    The first of his two homers on this night banged off the second deck in left field in the fourth inning, tying the game at 1. More importantly, it broke the seal against future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The big Los Angeles lefty was supposed to start Game 2, only to be scratched with back spasms, and Atlanta made him work Thursday.

    Lined up to face the three-time NL Cy Young award winner in Game 4 was Bryse Wilson, owner of seven career big-league starts who had not pitched in a competitive game since Sept. 27. Nobody gave the 22-year-old righty any chance of holding his own in such a pivotal game, one the Braves needed to keep the Dodgers from evening the series at two games apiece.

    All Wilson did in his playoff debut was baffle Los Angeles through six sparkling innings, surrendering only an Edwin Rios homer on a fastball over the middle of the plate in the third. Wilson used a fantastic breaking ball and a plus changeup with great control of his fastball to limit the powerful Dodgers lineup to just that one hit in six stellar innings, throwing 50 of his 74 pitches for strikes and pitching the game of his life.

    Owning the Moment: Bryse Wilson shined in his postseason debut, holding the Dodgers to one run on one hit in six innings in Game 4 of the NLCS.

    He didn’t allow the Rios blast to rattle him, retiring nine of the final 10 hitters he faced. He punctuated his outing with back-to-back 12-pitch innings in the fifth and sixth innings. On a day spent wondering how long he could go and could he keep the game close, Wilson didn’t just deliver.

    He dominated.

    “Wow,” Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters postgame, summing up the mood everybody had in watching Wilson dazzle. “How he’d handle that situation, he answered that question.”

    And the Braves offense issued its own answer during a relentless six-run sixth, a 35-minute half-inning that turned a stomach-churning 1-all matchup into a margin with plenty of wiggle room. After Ronald Acuna singled and got second on a throwing error, it was likely NL MVP and team captain Freddie Freeman delivering the go-ahead double to right.

    The Braves were just getting started. Ozuna doubled home Freeman to send Kershaw to the showers, the veteran allowing four runs on seven hits in five-plus innings. After a Travis d’Arnaud lineout, the Braves seized control: an Ozzie Albies blooper, a Dansby Swanson double, an Austin Riley single, a Johan Camargo walk and a Cristian Pache single blowing things open.

    A Sweet Sixth: The Braves took control of Game 4 of the NLCS on Thursday with a six-run sixth.

    The Braves did what the Dodgers do so well: work counts and ambush mistakes and roll up runs with a deep lineup. Atlanta went 6-for-9 with runners in scoring position in the inning, delivering the biggest blows in the pivotal moments in the biggest game the franchise has played in forever.

    Friday night’s game is even bigger. And if the Braves can win just one more time, they’ll go play in the biggest games of them all.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    JUST ENOUGH: Braves Hold On At The Finish, Take 2-0 NLCS Lead

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – Supposedly, the Atlanta Braves owned the second-best lineup entering this National League Championship Series. Supposedly, their hitters could not work counts, lay off close pitches and string together quality at-bats like the Los Angeles Dodgers.

    And even though things got hairy in the bottom of the ninth, that offense had built just enough of a cushion to down the favorites from the west coast for a second consecutive day.

    It goes in the books as an 8-7 victory over the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS on Tuesday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. All seven Los Angeles runs came from the seventh inning on, and while it was a white-knuckle finish and certainly wasn’t pretty, the Braves avoided what would’ve been a disheartening collapse.

    Now they hold a 2-0 series lead. The Braves are halfway to the pennant, halfway to punching their ticket to the World Series. And even after a four-run ninth by Los Angeles, kept alive by an error from Ozzie Albies, this fact is indisputable:

    If the Dodgers are going to keep the Braves from winning the pennant, they must win four of the next five games.

    There was drama at the finish, and there was drama several hours before first pitch. The Dodgers scratched Clayton Kershaw due to back spasms. Los Angeles turned to Tony Gonsolin, a prized pitching prospect known for pounding the strike zone. All the right-handed did was mow through the first nine Braves in 28 no-stress pitches, while Atlanta rookie Ian Anderson struggled with command but kept the Dodgers off the scoreboard.

    Gonsolin’s dominance didn’t last long.

    Freddie Freeman followed Ronald Acuna Jr.’s leadoff walk in the fourth with his second homer in two games, staking Atlanta to a 2-0 lead. Gonsolin would need 33 pitches to close the frame and began the fifth at 61 pitches, delivering the first pitch of the inning to Austin Riley at 7:38 p.m. ET.

    The Dodgers recorded the third out 35 minutes later. In between, nine hitters came to the plate, four walked, four scored, the Los Angeles bullpen door opened twice, and the Braves tripled their lead. It was a doctorate-level class in how to grind down and chew up an opposing pitching staff, taught by the team many thought would be the students before the series started.

    Nick Markakis, who has struggled to catch up to velocity in the postseason, battled through a 10-pitch at-bat before drawing a walk off Gonsolin. Cristian Pache – the 21-year-old with four regular-season at-bats who started for Adam Duvall (season-ending oblique injury) – yanked a 3-2 pitch inside the third-base bag for a double to score Markakis and extend the lead to 3-0. Acuna followed with a five-pitch walk, and Gonsolin gave way to Pedro Baez.

    Freeman flicked his third pitch into center to score Pache, Acuna racing to third on the play. Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud drew back-to-back walks to force home another run, and an Albies sacrifice fly to center made it 6-0. Dylan Floro struck out Dansby Swanson to end the inning, but not before Los Angeles needed 53 pitches to get three outs.

    But the postseason isn’t easy, and the Braves bullpen cracked for the first time this October. Darren O’Day gave up two hits and A.J. Minter surrendered a three-run homer to Corey Seager in the seventh to cut Atlanta’s lead to 7-3. In the ninth, Josh Tomlin gave up three runs, Max Muncy’s two-run shot pulling Los Angeles within 8-6.

    Melancon – who a few minutes earlier caught an Albies ninth-inning homer in the left-field bullpen for the second straight night – came on and saw his home-run tag-team partner boot Will Smith’s grounder that would’ve ended the game. Cody Bellinger tripled to the right-field corner to cut the lead to one, but Melancon got a groundout to end the madness.

    Some fans will hyper-focus on the harrowing final moments, but the Braves are in good shape. Minter had allowed a homer to exactly one of 88 hitters he faced before Tuesday. Tomlin’s not going to pitch the ninth inning unless there is plenty of margin for error. Albies makes that play 49 times out of 50.

    In October, there are no style points. It’s simple: find a way to win.

    The Braves have done it twice in two games.

    Do it two more times, and they’ll play in the World Series.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.




    FREE IN 13! Braves Outlast Reds in Classic Game 1, Sit One Win from NLDS

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – Pardon me if it takes a minute to gather my thoughts. I’ve been watching and writing about the teams from here for a long time.

    So take it from me: Atlanta teams aren’t accustomed to winning this type of game.

    Certainly not in the postseason.

    Yet there the Braves were Wednesday, four hours and 39 minutes into a tight, tense scoreless fight with Cincinnati in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card series at Truist Park. At some point, the urgency of jumping to a lead in the rapid-fire best-of-three series with two rookies slated to start the next two days faded into a blur of strikeouts, history, stranded runners until, finally, a soft single to center from the probable NL most valuable player ended the stalemate.

    Freddie Freeman flicked a 1-2 pitch from Amir Garrett over the second base bag, chasing home top prospect and pinch runner Cristian Pache to give the Braves a 1-0 victory in 13 agonizing, nerve-jangling, life-shortening innings. What happened between Max Fried’s first pitch at 12:08 p.m. ET and Pache becoming the first – and only – player to touch home plate on this day was thrilling.

    And torturous. At some point, I imagine even the most loyal Braves fan looked skyward and said out loud, “in what macabre way will we lose this one?”

    Not on this day, though! For once, a team based in Georgia’s capital city managed to avoid the type of crushing, soul-stealing heartbreak that fans in this part of the world not only expect, but accept as a birthright. Like closing school for one inch of snow, sweet tea at every restaurant, and a non-stop countdown to the start of SEC football, devastating postseason losses are our thing. Just ask the Hawks, the Bulldogs, and of course, the Falcons.

    But not on this day. And how the Braves managed to reach sundown with two shots to win a playoff series for the first time in 19 years is a story that will be told for a long, long time. Asked to try and put the series opener into some semblance of perspective, Atlanta manager Brian Snitker chucked.

    “I don’t know if we’ve got enough time,” he told reporters.

    Captain Clutch: Freddie Freeman delivered the RBI single in the 13th inning that lifted the Braves to a 1-0 victory over Cincinnati and a 1-0 lead in the NL Wild Card series Wednesday.

    Just consider the first glance at the box score: 12 ½ scoreless innings, the longest 0-0 contest in MLB postseason history. The two teams combined for 37 strikeouts, another playoff record. The mere fact the Atlanta offense, which led the majors in OBP this season, whiffed 21 times and still won the game is mind blowing. The Braves finished with all of six hits, three coming in a 13th inning that turned up lucky for Atlanta at long last.

    Honestly, the Reds weren’t much better offensively despite recording 11 hits. Cincinnati hitters struck out 16 times, and finished 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position with 13 left on base. Time and time again, the Reds put pressure on the Braves bullpen, a relief corps completely remade in the past 14 months.

    Consider this for a moment: the closer on July 30, 2019 was Luke Jackson. Wednesday, he was left off the playoff roster.

    Snitker gets plenty of criticism (some of it well deserved) for bullpen management, but he made all the right moves in Game 1. The guys he called upon responded, even if they walked a tightrope to get to the other side of the canyon. Darren O’Day gave up a double and issued two walks in the 11th. Tyler Matzek kept it scoreless, striking out Mike Moustakas to end the threat, then whiffed the side in the 12th after allowing consecutive singles.

    In the 13th, Shane Greene gave up two singles and threw a wild pitch. A.J. Minter came on and walked Moustakas to load the bases before a strikeout and groundout got the Braves out of trouble again. Somehow, someway, the bullpen avoided the wrong steps that so often have plagued this franchise in postseasons past.

    As the strikeouts in the scorebook and zeros on the scoreboard piled up, it became easy to forget the two pitchers who set us down this path. Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer backed up his big talk with a command performance, striking out 12 with no walks and two hits allowed in 7 2/3 innings. The Braves handed the ball to Fried for his first postseason start – I mean, who else was going to start the opener – and the lefty responded with five strikeouts and no walks in seven shutout frames.

    Fried found himself in a jam right off the bat as Cincinnati opened the game with back-to-back singles. But as soon as Braves fans immediately started recoiling at the thought of another awful opening inning in a home playoff game, the 26-year-old induced two groundouts and a flyout to set the tone. Fried threw 53 of his 78 pitches for strikes across seven innings – one more than he pitched the final three weeks of the regular season – then sat back and watched the madness unfold like the rest of us.

    Pair of Aces: Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer and Atlanta’s Max Fried put on a show in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series Wednesday.

    “It was so much fun to watch,” Fried told reporters postgame.

    It was a demoralizing loss for the Reds, but don’t expect any Atlanta fan to gloat too soon. There’s at least one, and perhaps two, games left to play in this series. But Game 2 and (if needed) Game 3 will have a hard time living up to the opener.

    It was the type of game Atlanta teams just don’t win.

    It was a game the Braves won anyway.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    Postseason Preview: Braves Must Maximize Roster in Red-Letter Matchup

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – The finish line at times seemed like a mirage, but after all the trepidation and worry about trying to pull off a shortened season in a pandemic, we made it.

    The 60-game sprint to the finish is complete. And, as it tends to do, baseball provided us plenty of memorable moments. Most of all, it brought back a familiar backbeat of normalcy during a time when for so many of us, normal felt like a foreign concept.

    I think I speak for Braves fans everywhere when I said here is where normalcy should cease and desist. While Atlanta is accustomed to reaching the playoffs after three consecutive National League East titles, it’s the typical status quo in October that has long since worn out its welcome. You know the math by now, by heart, much as it hurts: 19 years sans a postseason series victory.

    Opportunity knocks again starting Wednesday at Truist Park, where the Braves will open the NL Wild Card series against the Cincinnati Reds and their three-headed monster of a starting rotation. While there will be plenty of attention paid to Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray in the days ahead, it won’t be an easy out for either team – especially in a best-of-three opening round that immediately pushes the Game 1 loser into a do-or-die situation.

    Which is why Atlanta can ill afford to have any wasted spots on its 28-man postseason roster. No, it won’t happen but, yes, I absolutely would have Cristian Pache on the bench and William Contreras as the third catcher. In lieu of any personal feelings, here’s my projection of what the Braves playoff roster will look like:

    Starting pitchers (3): Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright. Open spots: none.

    Fried’s six innings pitched since Sept. 6 may be a blessing in disguise, and the left-hander has worked through back spasms and an ankle injury to reach the postseason at 100 percent. His development into a Cy Young contender and staff co-ace has been a saving grace for a rotation ripped apart by injuries and underperformance. Anderson has impressed in his first six big-league starts and the postseason stage doesn’t look to be too much for him to handle. Will we see the Wright from earlier this season (16 walks in 15 innings with a 7.20 ERA in four starts), or the one who shined his final three starts (six walks, 19 strikeouts, 2.37 ERA, .164 opponents batting average)?

    Relief pitchers (11): Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Will Smith, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Josh Tomlin, Darren O’Day, Grant Dayton, Jacob Webb. Open spots: 2.

    The biggest injury concern is right-hander Chris Martin, who felt groin discomfort in the regular-season finale Sunday. Martin, of course, hurt an oblique warming up for Game 1 of last season’s NLDS, leading to a late Atlanta meltdown. His injury Sunday certainly sent shivers through the spine of Atlanta’s fanbase, but even without him, this bullpen (3.50 ERA, 1,280 WHIP, 282 strikeouts in 272 2/3 innings) is good and deep enough to swing a close series in the Braves direction. Tomlin, far more effective as a reliever than starter, provides insurance as a long man if a starter falters, and I expect either Huascar Ynoa or Bryse Wilson to also grab a long-man spot. One player I don’t expect to see: Luke Jackson, who has struggled mightily for much of the season.

    Starting lineup (9): Ronald Acuna Jr. CF, Freddie Freeman 1B, Marcell Ozuna DH, Travis d’Arnaud C, Ozzie Albies 2B, Adam Duvall LF, Nick Markakis RF, Dansby Swanson SS, Austin Riley 3B.

    There is room for adjustment in the bottom half of the batting order, but without question Atlanta’s offense is better than a season ago. Acuna, Freeman and Ozuna are as good a trio as any in baseball (a combined .316 average, 45 homers, 138 RBIs and 135 runs scored in 602 at-bats). d’Arnaud’s signing has worked out splendidly (.919 OPS), and Albies has raked since returning from injury (.338 average, .953 OPS with five homers and 17 runs scored in 18 games). One concern: Duvall has cooled of late (.162/.262/.270 in his past nine games) while Markakis was brutal offensively in September (.164 average, .451 OPS in 19 games).

    Bench (5): Tyler Flowers C, Alex Jackson C, Ender Inciarte OF, Pablo Sandoval 3B. Open spots: 1.

    Sandoval made his Braves debut with two walks Sunday, and provides not only insurance if Riley’s right quadriceps remains problematic, but a wealth of postseason experience. But this bench is not good by any stretch of the imagination, and even adding either Adeiny Hechavarria (who was awful defensively last week) or Johan Camargo (27.6% strikeout rate, .611 OPS) doesn’t move the needle. I expect the Braves to carry one of the two plus Jackson and Inciarte, although I’d lean to Contreras (better hitter) and Pache (speed and defense).

    Coming Tuesday: Five keys to the Braves/Reds series, who wins and why.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    2020 Season Preview: Braves are Built Not Just to Survive, but Thrive, Entering Unprecedented Campaign

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – Nobody could have predicted what we have been through the past few months. Nobody could imagine the impact the coronavirus would have on every single aspect of our everyday lives, on things far more serious than the doings of a baseball franchise seeking its first World Series title in a quarter-century.

    Yet, in some weird way, Alex Anthopoulos built an Atlanta Braves team that seems poised to handle baseball’s 60-game sprint quite well. It certainly wasn’t foresight into what this 2020 baseball season would look like – one that will be as unprecedented as any baseball campaign in the history of the sport – but rather, by how the Braves general manager viewed his team after back-to-back National League East championships.

    Anthopoulos felt the Braves needed depth in their bullpen. He first addressed it with three moves at last season’s trade deadline, and further bolstered it by signing Will Smith in early November. There is the seemingly never-ending supply of pitching prospects gurgling in the upper levels of the minor leagues, including some arms the Braves hope are ready for prime-time duty under the bright lights of the majors.

    The arrival of the designated hitter to the National League automatically lengthened Atlanta’s lineup, a lineup that saw a logjam at third base with Austin Riley and Johan Camargo, plus a logjam in the outfield. Certainly, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna will be in the lineup almost every day, and even with Nick Markakis electing not to play, the Braves still have Ender Inciarte and Adam Duvall (plus Cristian Pache waiting in the wings).

    Adding the designated hitter also can help these Braves address a deficiency that could be an Achilles heel – bats that mash right-handed pitching. Often those guys are left-handed hitters, and the Braves brought Matt Adams back this week hoping to see the type of power he displayed here three seasons ago. The reported and rumored signing of Yasiel Puig would have addressed that, too (the erstwhile Dodgers slugger bats right-handed, but features reverse splits). But once again, COVID-19 and 2020 reared its ugly head, Puig testing positive for the virus and announcing the news via social media just minutes after the Braves captain – Freddie Freeman – joyously trotted onto the field Friday at Truist Park, following his harrowing journey through having the virus.

    Freddie Freeman has finished in the top eight in NL MVP voting four times, but the four-time All-Star found himself sick from COVID-19 in early July.

    Freeman embarks on his 10th season in the majors; how has it been that long? Without question this is his team, much as Terry Pendleton led the early 90s Braves, much as Chipper Jones carried that torch for more than a decade. Thankfully, Freeman looks healthy and his swing looks great. A week ago, we all wondered what a Freeman-less Braves would look like embarking on a truncated schedule that begins with 20 games in 20 days, against plenty of great pitching.

    Consider who the Braves may see in those opening 20 games: Jacob deGrom (twice) and Steven Matz of the Mets, Blake Snell and Charlie Morton of the Rays, Hyun Jin-Ryu of the Blue Jays, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, and Gerrit Cole of the Yankees. That’s nine of your first 20 games against a group of pitchers who are on many people’s short list of All-Star hurlers.

    It’s all going to be different. This isn’t going to be your father’s baseball season. The methodical marathon that frames our spring and summer evenings? Not this year, folks. This is a 400-yard dash for a sport accustomed to logging 26.2 miles. Teams that start quickly are going to be positioned to potentially steal playoff spots. But before crying doom and gloom if the Braves arrive at their first off day on Aug. 13 at 8-12, consider two schedule quirks across the final 40 games that might prove more important than having to start 14-6.

    The middle 20 games: Atlanta faces Philadelphia and Washington 12 times. Six of the other eight are against Miami and Boston (this Red Sox team certainly is not of the ilk of the 2018 champs). Even if the Braves stumble a bit out of the gate, not only do they have an opportunity to catch up against two subpar teams in the middle part of the schedule, they also play 60 percent of their games in that stretch against the two teams I feel will challenge them for the NL East title.

    The final 20 games: The Braves play 13 against the Marlins, Orioles and Red Sox. Atlanta ends the season with a seven-game homestand against Miami and Boston. The Yankees and the Rays are likely to rule the AL East, and Boston’s pitching is quite suspect. Miami will be better; its young pitching is maturing, and the Marlins have a few guys who are developing into good players (they’re a couple of years away from being a real problem for the NL East). If you’re going to wrap up the season with a week at home, other than Baltimore, there are no two teams in the combined East you want to face than the Marlins and Red Sox.

    What will it take to get to that point, 53 games in the books, one week to go, with a shot at October? The more I look at it, the more I think the Braves are built for this.

    Atlanta’s youthful exuberance, a hallmark of the Braves resurgence the past two seasons, remains (minus the hugs and high-fives). Acuna remains an emerging megastar. Ozzie Albies is developing into a star in his own right. The rotation is fronted by two of the better young arms in the game: Mike Soroka, the youngest pitcher in modern Braves history to earn an opening-day starting assignment, and Max Fried, who could develop into a sneaky Cy Young candidate if his change-up continues developing.

    22-year-old Mike Soroka finished second in NL rookie-of-the-year voting in 2019 and sixth in Cy Young voting, providing a cool presence at the top of Atlanta’s rotation entering his second full big-league season.

    There are question marks. Can Cole Hamels get healthy? Can Dansby Swanson replicate his 2019 first half and postseason while staying healthy? Can Sean Newcomb and Mike Foltynewicz settle the middle of the rotation? Will Ender Inciarte start the season hitting like it’s April or July? Can Smith, who is out with the virus but asymptomatic, test negative twice and get back on the mound?

    We are forced to acknowledge the 50,000-pound weight hanging over all this. What happens after three weeks of play, of flying into different cities and staying in hotels then returning home, if positive tests spike and a team (be it the Braves or another team) finds itself with an outbreak? Nobody knows, and that’s part of the trepidation I feel in offering a projection of where this Braves team lands when this season like no other reaches its conclusion on Sept. 27.

    But we’re going to hope and pray things go well – for every team in the majors – and we’ll forge ahead with a best guess. And it’s just that: a guess. We have no clue what’s going to happen. There is no playbook, no guideposts. This is the strangest season preview I’ve ever authored, fitting for the strangest year of my life.

    This incredibly unpredictable sprint rests on simple math. Each singular game is worth 2.7 times one regular game in a 162-game season (subscription required). If you win 37 games, that’s a .616 win percentage (a 99-win pace over a full season). Win 27 games? That’s a .450 win percentage (a 74-win pace).

    I don’t see these Braves reaching either that peak or that valley. Even with an 8-12 start, I think they’re good enough – based on their depth, Freeman being ready from the jump, the young talent on the roster, and motivation after choking away what should have been the franchise’s first postseason series victory in 18 years – to finish 34-26.

    That’s a 91-win pace over 162, and I think that’s just enough to land the Braves one game ahead of Washington and two games ahead of Philadelphia. That would put Atlanta into the postseason party, and in a world where everything seems to have changed, the overarching goal has not:

    Win 11 games in October and capture the World Series title. There is no telling who will do it, or what will happen along the way, but it’s time to start the journey.

    After all we’ve been through, how sweet that sounds.

    —30—

    On deck as we preview the 2020 Atlanta Braves season: A Braves Opening Day like no other.

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    Restarting Baseball Won’t Be Easy, But There’s a Way to Get There

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – The weekly Zoom call with some of my tailgate buddies is finished. I am watching a replay of a Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) game on ESPN2. The Kia Tigers are playing, and Preston Tucker is in the lineup – remember when he hit a homer off Max Scherzer to cap the season-opening homestand in 2018, a homer my oldest son actually called from our seats in Section 431 on a Wednesday get-away day in early April?

    OK, quit lying. You do not remember it. Tucker would be replaced in a few weeks in left field by some hot-shot prospect. Think his name was Acuna? I don’t know. But my kid will not let me forget the moment he told me, “Tuck’s going yard here.”

    We so wish random memories from a game a couple of years ago could dominate our thoughts right now. That’s not the case, obviously. I admit, we are reaching here as we dive into the ninth week of the Coronavirus shutdown that has shuttered North American sports. And yet there are signs – as we hopefully are reopening to get folks back to work while keeping the curve flattened – that some leagues are ramping up. NASCAR, which embraced online technology brilliantly with its iRacing series, plans to run a real race next weekend. NBA training facilities are staring to open, gradually. Same with MLS.

    And Major League Baseball apparently has a plan. It’s a plan that makes sense, given this different time in which we’re living, and given that the decision makers for not just sports leagues, but corporations and local municipalities and state governments and up to the federal level, have no baseline by which to measure the decisions they’re making. I have my opinions, but let me say this: this ain’t easy for any of them. In this time, kindness and grace carries the day, the way I see it, regardless of anything else. And they’re trying, folks.

    As far as firing up MLB again, I know it also is not easy. But there is a plan that was reported by The Athletic (subscription required) on Saturday that feels like it just might work. In summation, MLB is going to present the bones of the plan to the owners on Monday and, provided it gets owners approval, could be presented to the players association as early as Tuesday.

    Of course, there are far more questions than answers. I get that. And those questions are fair. The owners and players could halt this movement if they do not agree to some sort of revenue-sharing agreement, with the likelihood no fans will be in the stands. I do think neither side wants to come across as greedy in this moment. Actually, collaboration between the owners and players association could lay groundwork toward a collective bargaining agreement, considering the current CBA expires after the 2021 season.

    In summation, the plan would produce a shortened season – and without fans to start, obviously. Let’s hope we can get fans back in the stands at some point. The number of games thrown around, dictated by basic math, is 78 games (81 games is ½ of a normal MLB season). Teams would be limited to play only their division opponents, plus the teams who make up their corresponding division in the other league. The Braves play in the National League East, so that means your schedule is comprised of the other four teams in the NL East, plus the five teams in the American League East.

    You play four three-game series against your division opponents, and two three-game series against each team in the other corresponding division. So, 48 games within division, and 30 games against the other division. I would like to see if we could expand that schedule to include a few series with Central division opponents. You’d love to see the Braves play three games against the Cubs at Wrigley, or host three games against the Cardinals. But if 78 games is the limit, we will take it.

    And sure, the “AL and NL East” division would be a tough sled for anybody. Look at last year’s standings. Yes, you have the Marlins and Orioles (two rebuilding franchises) in there, but you also have the Nationals, Yankees, Rays, Mets and Phillies. The Jays have tons of young talent. For the Braves, it would be a tough slog, but they also are among the really good teams.

    And honestly, do you care if the teams in your division are better than the other divisions right now?

    There have been rumors MLB told teams to tell their players to start ramping up, and I noticed evidence of that on social media. Late this week, I watched an Instagram story from Ronald Acuna Jr. in which he shared a pic he took outside Truist Park. Over the next two days, there were IG stories of Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo hitting together.

    Camargo had stayed in Tampa – where he worked this offseason to shed weight and get ready for spring training – and Acuna had traveled to the Miami area after the shutdown. Albies had returned to the Atlanta area after camp was halted. The three of them hitting together was the first sign to me that things might be about to fire up again.

    The conventional wisdom is spring training would start in early-to-mid June, with games beginning in early July. The thought is teams would play in their home stadiums, unless the COVID-19 virus spikes in a particular venue – sadly, New York City comes to mind – and the people involved (players, coaches, umpires, trainers, doctors, PR staff, bat boys, etc.) would get tested frequently.

    Here in Georgia, the governor has told us that anybody who wants a test now can be tested. There was open testing at the park today where I coached my kids in youth baseball for a decade, for example. The City of Orlando has told the NBA’s Orlando Magic to go ahead and test their people freely, as the city now has enough testing for frontline workers to allow for testing for something as frivolous as a basketball team’s personnel.

    We must shift our perspective from what we have experienced previously. It truly is an unprecedented time in our nation’s and our world’s history. Baseball in this moment will not be the same. Let’s embrace that first and foremost. Provided it can happen, this season will be like no other. That statement applies to life in general in these strange days and nights. And there are plenty of salient questions that require answers before an umpire shouts, “play ball!” What happens if a player tests positive? What if a city – be it New York City or Phoenix or Minneapolis or Atlanta – experiences a sudden surge in cases, as more and more locales ease lockdown restrictions? What happens if a baserunner slides hard into second base, gets tangled up with the second baseman, and one of them tests positive the next day?

    I’m not looking for answers right now because, honestly, none of us have those answers. What we do know is this; our sport is going to be different. That’s fine. Lean in here, and get creative. Nodding to the NHL daily roster model, I would love for MLB to have an active roster (thinking 30 guys) plus an inactive list (an extra four players) for each game, with the ability to interchange guys from one day to the next. I also wonder how we handle the minor leagues, which very well may not happen in 2020. If you’re the Braves, do you have Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, Ian Anderson, and the rest of the prospects playing intrasquad games at North Port, ready to be called up to the MLB inactive list or the 30-man roster if a need arises?

    Starting pitchers, even with a three-week spring training, only will be able to go three, maybe four innings at the onset of the season. One of my centric baseball concerns in this time is starters trying to go deeper than they should and blowing out, and getting lost for most of 2020 and 2021. I think you have to let starters piggy-back each other. The Braves depth helps here. So, Mike Soroka starts a game in early July? He goes three frames, then give the ball to Sean Newcomb or Felix Hernandez (or Josh Tomlin) to try and get you through six, then turn it over to arguably the deepest bullpen in the NL.

    In a truncated schedule, starting quickly is going to be critical. And I think the Braves are well positioned here. They have plenty of depth pitching wise – remember the arms that really stood out before camp shut down? Newcomb. Hernandez. Kyle Wright. Touki Toussaint. Then think about the bullpen. If you use Will Smith, Mark Melancon and Chris Martin on one day, you can come back the next day with Shane Greene, Darren O’Day and Luke Jackson. Each has experience closing games in the majors.

    Alex Anthopoulos never could have have envisioned this environment – heck, who could have? – but the Braves arms are positioned well as anybody for the remarkable, memorable, strange season that we all hope is about to unfold. And, if the season unfolds like we think it might, the Braves might be as positioned as well as any team.

    Hope everyone is safe. Hope everyone is well. Hopefully, we are covering ball here soon. Thank you for reading. Thank you for reaching out via social media. Take care, and hopefully we get to write about baseball soon.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.