• Adam Wainwright

    Winter is Here, but Work for 2020 Starts Now

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    SOMEWHERE IN NORTH GEORGIA – We’re knee-deep into the offseason and, if you weren’t 100 percent sure after a painful choke in the NLDS, a World Series title signed with a curly W that has made me moved our prescriptions from Walgreens to CVS, and the missing daily backbeat of live baseball, just walk outside.

    It’s cold enough to snow. In North Georgia. In November.

    Pardon me while I throw up in my mouth.

    Welcome to winter. Or, to be more specific, welcome to baseball’s offseason. Recency bias tells us it’s a long, slow slog that will continue well into spring training. It shouldn’t be that way, but if the dispatches we’re seeing on Twitter from the MLB General Managers meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., this week are any indication, we may see a shift back to a more normal cadence of moves.

    Heck, four free agents have signed already, all four with Braves connections! Atlanta technically made Tyler Flowers and Nick Markakis free agents for about 17 seconds thanks to some creative bookkeeping – a smart move that freed up an extra $4 million for the 2020 payroll – then the Braves brought back right-handed reliever Darren O’Day for $2.25 million (a good move in my opinion) and the Cardinals signed former Braves first-round draft pick and the pride of St. Simons Island, one Adam Wainwright.

    I shared some personal thoughts on the St. Louis righty during our NLDS coverage. He’s a pillar of the St. Louis baseball community, but if there is any other place he would pitch besides under the Gateway Arch, it would be in his home state. That won’t happen in 2020, but plenty of moves remain to be made for the National League East champs.

    Let’s get into a few topics as we stoke the coals in the hot stove on this chilly November evening:

    Is There Rain in the Forecast?

    I’ve made it known far and wide for months that objective numero uno this offseason for the Braves is to re-sign third baseman Josh Donaldson. The soon-to-be 34-year old bet on himself in 2019 and the move came up aces, as he slugged 37 homers while slashing .259/.379/.521 for a .900 OPS in a (still mind-blowing to me) 155 games.

    The good folks on Braves Twitter are losing their minds with every passing day, hitting refresh every four seconds hoping to see the tweet that the Bringer of Rain has re-upped with Atlanta. People, relax! Donaldson is going to take his time, rightly so, and for a reason. There are numerous contenders who need a third baseman and have money to spend. Donaldson has vaulted himself into the No. 2 position in the market, only behind Anthony Rendon and the massive contract the former Washington third baseman will land.

    Donaldson has earned this right to take his time. A tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (who blocked this author because, well, he’s a boob) on Wednesday indicated what I long suspected, and what didn’t throw me into a tizzy while every tweet reporting Donaldson interest scuttlebutt sent Braves fans into cliff-diving mode: Donaldson’s camp is talking to other teams, but he will circle back to the Braves once that’s done. At that point, Atlanta will measure the market and make what I think will be a strong offer.

    Will it be enough? I still think it will be. There is strong interest on both sides to re-sign with Atlanta. If somebody swoops in with, say, three years at $30 million a year (or a fourth year guaranteed), that’s likely too much for the Braves. But three years at $26 million? I see the Braves doing that. Just relax. This process will play out.

    What if the Forecast is Clear?

    And yet, it’s quite possible Donaldson dons a new jersey next season – push me for odds, and I still think it’s 65%-35% he returns to Atlanta. If he does go elsewhere, then contrary to the tone on social media, the franchise will not fold. There actually is a Plan B out there that, in some respects, is quite attractive vs. sinking $26 million into a soon-to-be 34-year old.

    If there is a poster child for the free-agent freeze in recent years, it’s Mike Moustakas. After hitting 38 homers for Kansas City during an All-Star season in 2017, Moustakas could not find the deal he wanted on the open market and returned to the Royals, signing in spring training. Four months later he was shipped to Milwaukee at the trade deadline, finishing 2018 with 28 homers and 33 doubles between the two teams.

    He re-signed with the Brewers as spring training opened in February for $10 million, a salary that netted 35 homers, 87 RBIs, an .845 OPS and a 3.2 bWAR season. Back on the open market again, Moustakas figures to finally land a multi-year deal as the third-best third baseman behind Rendon and Donaldson, and the Braves figure to be all over him, especially if they feel Donaldson may sign elsewhere.

    FanGraphs Steamer projections paint Moustakas as a 35-homer guy against in 2020 with a .260 average, a 2.8 fWAR (same fWAR as he posted in 2019) and an .824 OPS. Yes, it’s a step down from Donaldson but not as much as people think. He will play the bulk of 2020 at age 31, and most projections peg Moustakas earning an AAV somewhere between $11 million and $14 million. It’s a sizable reduction in salary for production that comes pretty close to what Donaldson provided. If Donaldson isn’t back, you could do far worse than a three-year, $40 million deal with Moustakas.

    Making Up for the Lost Offense

    I’d look no further than where Moustakas played 197 games the past two years. Milwaukee catcher Yasmani Grandal is on the open market, and in my mind he – combined with either Donaldson or Moustakas – would give the Braves the most length we’ve seen in an Atlanta lineup in close to two decades.

    Grandal just turned 31, is a switch hitter, and would give Atlanta a legit front-line catcher – relegating Tyler Flowers to 35-40 starts (which I think is optimal). Grandal has hit at least 22 homers in each of the past four seasons, is regarded well defensively – despite a hiccup with the Dodgers in the 2017 playoffs – and last season in Milwaukee posted an .848 OPS and 2.5 bWAR, which from the catcher’s spot totally is acceptable.

    Grandal would be a great addition, regardless of who plays third base. Yes, catchers are scary when they cross age 30. Yes, it won’t be cheap, as he projects to make somewhere between $16 million and $20 million per year. And yes, Atlanta has two strong catching prospects in William Contreras and Shea Langeliers, both of whom could be in the majors in two years. But a switch-hitting catcher who produces offensively and can shoulder a large bulk of the workload (126-plus games in five of the past six seasons) would be well worth the investment.

    For Starters, How About a Starter?

    There’s no question Alex Anthopoulos wants to fortify the starting rotation. Atlanta figures to enter 2020 with three starters locked into the rotation: Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Mike Foltynewicz. A fourth arm from the rebuild, Sean Newcomb, will get a shot to win a rotation spot in spring training after spending 2019 as a valuable lefty relief arm.

    There is no shortage of arms available on the open market, from World Series hero and North Carolina native Madison Bumgarner, to East Paulding High alum Zack Wheeler, to resurgence candidate Jake Odorizzi. But if the Braves fill third base and catcher via free agency, I think they will pivot and try to trade for a veteran starter.

    Perhaps that’s Matthew Boyd of Detroit, whom the Braves were rumored to be in on at the trade deadline and whose performance plummeted in the second half (3-6, 5.51 ERA, 20 homers in 78 1/3 innings after the All-Star break). Perhaps that’s Corey Kluber, the Cleveland ace whose 2019 was scuttled after he took a line drive to his arm.

    And perhaps the final rotation piece resides in house, be it Kyle Wright (whose 90 mph slider was very impressive in a couple of late-season relief appearances), or Bryse Wilson (who was inconsistent in the majors, yet dominated the Phillies in a July start), or Touki Toussaint (who endured a completely lost season in 2019, but whose raw stuff remains tantalizing). Ian Anderson probably needs more time at Triple-A; same with Tucker Davidson.

    What About the Big Targets?

    There is plenty of chatter about superstars nearing free agency who could be on the trading block, partly because their teams know they cannot afford them once club control expires, and partly to pivot toward keeping other stars on their roster. Three names bantered about have created quite the stir: Boston outfielder Mookie Betts, Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, and Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor.

    Betts is a non-starter for the Braves, even though he is 12 months removed from a MVP award. He’s under contract for only one year with a projected arbitration price of $27.7 million. Anybody who thinks Atlanta should open its prospect vault for one year has lost their grip on reality. This isn’t a team whose winning window is about to close; it’s just opened. Dealing multiple top prospects to Boston for one year of Betts would undercut the years Atlanta spent trying to rebuild its franchise and farm system.

    Bryant is more interesting. The Cubs have a slew of talent that helped Chicago break their 108-year World Series curse in 2016, but with guys like Javy Baez and Anthony Rizzo getting close to free agency, there simply isn’t enough money to go around. I expect Bryant to be moved this offseason, but a projected $18.5 million salary for 2020 with his injury history gives me cause to pause. Perhaps striking out on both Donaldson and Moustakas changes my tune.

    The one I’m fascinated by is Lindor. A two-time Gold Glove winner (remember, he plays in the same league as Andrelton Simmons) who has playoff and World Series experience, who turns 26 on Thursday, who has placed in the top 10 in AL MVP voting (likely to be there again when the award is announced Thursday evening). Lindor has slugged 32-plus homers with at least an .842 OPS in each of the past three seasons, with 22 or more stolen bases each of the past two years, and he hit .284 in 2019 with 22 steals (thrown out just five times), 40 doubles and 101 runs scored.

    Lindor truly is a generational talent, and he’s under club control for 2020 and 2021. There is a thought process that putting him with the Braves makes Atlanta the most dynamic lineup in the NL. I see it. Can you imagine that dude with Acuna and Albies and Freeman and perhaps Donaldson or Moustakas, and perhaps Grandal?

    There will be a price, certainly from a money perspective (Lindor is projected to make $16.7 million in arbitration, a figure that could soar above $20 million in 2021), and certainly from a fanbase perspective (as Atlanta native Dansby Swanson absolutely would be included in the deal, and perhaps center fielder Ender Inciarte as well, to help offset the money). But Lindor is a game-changing talent, and one under control for two years. If there is a risk to take on the trade market, this makes sense for Atlanta to explore.

    Patience is a Virtue

    There has been far more chatter this November than the past two autumns. Sure, some of it is agent-driven noise, designed to try and accelerate the market. But the feeling is this offseason will unfold differently, and quicker.

    Traditionally, there are few moves made during the GM Meetings. But it’s the first chance for general mangers to get together in one place, compare notes, discuss needs and wants and desires. It feels like the weeks between now and the early December Winter Meetings will see more action than recent years, with a flurry of activity happening between now and Christmas.

    The Braves figure to be right in the middle of it, shaking off the chill of winter’s onset with a burning desire to get to 2020 as quickly as possible, with an evolving roster that by spring better be capable of winning the World Series.

    Anthopoulos has been on the job for two years. He’s been splendid in many ways, frustrating in others. This is the offseason to make his mark.

    The market is ripe, and the time is now.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    Never-Say-Die Braves Sit One Step From NLCS After Overcoming Wainwright’s Brilliance in Game 3

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – Some 13 years ago, the rookie pitcher trying to make an opening-day major-league roster for the first time locked eyes with a reporter from his hometown. After a smile and a head nod, the lanky right-hander said he would pop out of the visitors locker room at Champion Stadium in Orlando and have a few minutes to chat.

    The reporter acknowledged the message. About 10 minutes after this spring training game in mid-March 2006 ended, the 6-foot-7 Southeast Georgia native emerged through the locker room door. There was a handshake, a couple of minutes catching up about family and life in the Golden Isles, then the pitcher decided to turn journalist and ask the sports editor of his hometown newspaper the question he always asked, one born from that December Saturday in 2003 when he was dealt from the Atlanta organization he grew up idolizing (as the reporter did) to St. Louis:

    “So, who were you rooting for today?”

    Adam Wainwright grinned as he asked the question. He always grinned when he looked at me and asked that. I rolled my eyes and responded, “dude, it’s a spring-training game. I don’t care who wins.”

    The times I ran across Waino in the next couple of years or so – before I headed back to Atlanta and eventually left the newspaper business – I always got the same question from him. Didn’t matter if I saw him in person. I got it from his brother’s email on occasion when the Braves and Cardinals crossed paths. I mean, I even wore a red golf shirt on top of a Braves T-shirt when I sat in the front row at Turner Field and watched him start in 2007.

    On his way to the bullpen to warm up that night, he glanced over and briefly grinned.

    Every time he asked me that question, I offered the same answer:

    “I hope you pitch fantastic, and I hope you get a no-decision.”

    We fast forward nearly half a decade to Sunday’s Game 3 of the 2019 National League Division Series. Those two dudes mentioned earlier were invested heavily in this matchup between the Braves and Cardinals, facing off at Busch Stadium with the series all square at one game apiece. Wainwright, now 38 years old, took the ball for his 25th career postseason appearance.

    That reporter who used to field calls from the right-hander at the sports editor’s desk when Wainwright was a minor-leaguer and just wanted to catch up on how the teams in Glynn County (and not just his alma mater, either) were faring on the diamond, the gridiron, the hardwood, the golf course, the soccer pitch?

    I sat in my room dedicated to the team that Wainwright was hell-bent on beating on this first Sunday in October while trying to push his Cardinals to a 2-1 series lead, and struggled to breathe for 3 hours, 22 minutes.

    Tell me baseball isn’t the absolute best.

    By now, y’all know how the third game of this series transpired.

    The St. Simons Island (Ga.) native and Glynn Academy alum Wainwright mixed his pitches in a beautifully, inspiring, perfect mix to befuddle the Braves offense. Atlanta’s counterpart on this day was The Kid from Calgary, 22-year-old Mike Soroka, who was two months shy of his third birthday when I sat in the press box at Turner Field in June 2000 and included a sentence in that night’s notebook that the Braves took some kid named Wainwright with their first-round draft pick.

    On this opening Sunday in October, the dude so many call Waino (in this house, the wife and my kids and I still call him, “AW” or “A-Dub”) lasted 7 2/3 innings, allowing four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts but no runs. It was a masterful performance by a grizzled veteran, so many years after I remember two young kids trying to find their way in our respective fields, laughing together.

    As good as Wainwright was on this day, Soroka was even better in his postseason debut. He allowed a bloop double to the opposite field from Marcell Ozuna in the second, and that run would score on a groundout to the right side and a fly ball. For the vast majority of this night, it appeared that lone run would stick as the only tally, as Wainwright and Soroka – separated in age by 16 years – kept the opposing offenses at bay.

    But a delicious irony would occur near the finish line by the banks of the Mississippi River. Sitting some 35 miles northeast of SunTrust Park and nursing a voice that was stretched to the max after attending the first two games of the NLDS in Atlanta, I couldn’t help but think of the first time I saw Wainwright pitch in person.

    It was the 2003 Southern League All-Star game. It was held at the Baseball Grounds in Jacksonville, the first year the new stadium was open, and Wainwright started that game – en route to going 10-8 with a 3.37 ERA at Double-A Greenville in his final season in the Braves organization that only whetted the Cardinals appetite when it came time to talk about trading another South Georgia product, J.D. Drew. I still remember AW helping the grounds crew pull the tarp off the bullpen mound to warm up.

    I also remember who his manager was that season.

    A lifelong Braves organizational guy named Brian Snitker.

    Since being promoted to take over the big-league club after Fredi Gonzalez was fired in May 2016, the Braves have rallied for Snitker in dream-like fashion. Atlanta has become one of the best teams in the majors in rallying from late-inning deficits. Some of those comeback have been the stuff of storybook and fantasy.

    But what the Braves did staring at the death in Game 3 will resonate for years to come.

    It started with Josh Donaldson, the $23-million man who has proven to be worth every penny but yet had just one hit in his first 11 at-bats in the series, lining a double down the left-field line to start the ninth. Wainwright was gone, replaced with starter-turned-closer Carlos Martinez with two outs in the eighth. Martinez, an emotional sort on the bump, struck out the next two hitters in the ninth after the leadoff two-bagger, setting up what may be the most pivotal managerial decision of the entire postseason.

    St. Louis skipper Mike Shildt, who may wrestle away the NL manager of the year award from Snitker given the Cardinals play in the second half, decided to walk left-handed hitting Brian McCann. He wanted the right-handed Martinez facing the right-handed hitting Dansby Swanson. Never mind that Swanson hit .310 with a .916 OPS from the seventh inning on in the regular season with eight homers and 23 RBIs in 145 at-bats.

    Never mind that Swanson wanted the basketball in his hands when he played at Marietta High – a mere nine miles from SunTrust Park – and how he loved clutch situations while playing at Vanderbilt. The shortstop, who already had two hits on a day when offense was in limited supply for both teams, banged a game-tying double off the left-field wall.

    That sent Wainwright to a no-decision.

    Yes, I wished for it.

    No, it wasn’t fair.

    But the redemption story of this series, Adam Duvall, delivered the striking blow of one of the greatest Atlanta playoff comeback stories ever. The outfielder stroked a two-run single after Swanson’s game-tying knock. In the blink of an eye, a 1-0 loss and a 2-1 series deficit flipped on its ear.

    Mark Melancon locked down the ninth inning. Just like that, Atlanta went from playing for its lives Monday to playing for a shot at its first playoff series victory in 18 years. Wainwright spent 2001 pitching at Low-A Macon, going 10-10 with a 3.77 ERA in 28 starts. Some three months after his first full season in pro ball ended, I joined the staff of his hometown newspaper, and six weeks later I found out I would be a father for the first time.

    My kids are in high school. They have not been alive to see the Braves win a playoff series.

    They – and the rest of us – are nine innings away from a shot at the pennant.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.

    The Austin Riley Experience Leaves Us Speechless Again

    By Bud L. Ellis

    BravesWire.com

    ATLANTA – The radio hosts kept offering suggestions that the general manager considered, but it didn’t take long to tell there wasn’t a whole lot of decisiveness in the, “that’s pretty good,” and “yeah, that’s not bad,” answers.

    Alex Anthopoulos spent a few minutes on the Atlanta Braves flagship radio station Friday afternoon, and part of the 680 The Fan interview with the Braves GM focused on vetting nicknames offered by fans to encapsulate what has become The Austin Riley Experience. And while several of the suggestions were good, Anthopoulos – and quite frankly, the rest of the planet – is at a loss to describe what’s occurring on a nearly nightly basis.

    Riley – the 22-year-old third-baseman-of-tomorrow turned left-fielder-of-today-because-he-destroyed-Triple-A – did it again on a sun-splashed Saturday at SunTrust Park, belting an opposite-field 428-foot homer high above the Braves bullpen during Atlanta’s 10-5 triumph over the Detroit Tigers.

    On the first day of June, Riley continued doing what he’s done at a historic rate since making his major-league debut a scant 17 days ago:

    Forcing us to try and find the right words to sum up what we’re seeing.

    Good luck with that.

    Consider the facts, silly as they may sound. Riley is the fourth player in big-league history (Rhys Hoskins, Trevor Story and Carlos Delgado) to hit eight or more homers in the first 16 games of a career. His 22 RBIs tie the mark for most in 16 career games (Mandy Brooks in 1925; Jim Greengrass – an 80-grade last name, for what it’s worth – in 1952). He’s yet to go longer than three games without a homer; has yet to go more than two games without an RBI. He brings a .349/.388/.762 slash line into Sunday’s series finale, with a 1.150 OPS, 10 extra-base hits, 11 runs scored and a BABIP of .438.

    And we all thought Ronald Acuna Jr.’s at-bats last season were the type of must-see TV we only experience once in a generation. Riley is every bit as compelling, every bit as enticing, every bit as “oh my, did you see that!?!” A buzz rises through the ballpark when his 6-foot-3, 220-pound frame strides to the plate. It’s downright palpable, and I noticed it on May 16, just his second big-league game in which he went 3-for-4 – the first of his six multi-hit efforts to date.

    This is not your prototypical pull-happy, light-tower power, strapping slugger who’s feast or famine at the plate. Yes, there are the 23 strikeouts in 67 plate appearances. But there also is the 94.7 mph average exit velocity, nearly 6 mph harder than the MLB average. There is the approach: looking for an Adam Wainwright curveball in his fifth big-league at-bat that he served into center field, the soft single with two strikes down the right-field line to plate a game-winning run in the 13th inning in San Francisco, the long homer Saturday to the opposite field, the fact that 31.6 percent of Riley’s batted balls have been launched oppo – 6 percent above league average.

    Suffice to say Riley won’t see Gwinnett County again, unless he’s taking a drive up Interstate 85. Ender Inciarte’s back injury opened the door for Riley to reach the majors. Inciarte threw and ran on the field prior to Saturday’s game, but has yet to swing a bat. There is no urgency coming from anybody in the organization for the three-time Gold Glove center fielder to rush back.

    Can you blame them?

    Even with the swing and miss, Riley makes a good Braves lineup downright dangerous. To be honest, several key Braves have sputtered at the plate in the past three weeks. Riley has been good enough to shoulder a heavier-than-deserved load, similar to how Acuna carried the Atlanta offense for large parts of the final two-month sprint to the National League East title last summer.

    That effort by Acuna, along with the aura surrounding every time he stepped into the batter’s box, won him NL rookie of the year last November. Might we see a similar storyline unfold that leads another one of the crown jewels of the Great Atlanta Rebuild to the same honor in five months? Perhaps. The NL is littered with standout rookie talent, and not to be forgotten is yet another shining byproduct of the Braves teardown, ace-in-the-making Mike Soroka. The Kid From Calgary gave up more than one earned run for the first time this season Saturday, raising his ERA (yes, raising!) to 1.41 as he improved to 6-1.

    Soroka’s starts are must-watch, and he persevered on a day where he had a bit of ball-in-play bad luck. But a struggling offense that netted just 10 runs during a minor three-game losing streak roared back to life with runs in the final five innings.

    And smack-dab in the midst of it all was the Mississippi Masher, who once again sent us grasping for our thesauruses in a futile attempt to describe another jaw-dropping moment in The Austin Riley Experience.

    —30—

    Bud L. Ellis is a lifelong Braves fan who worked as a sports writer for daily newspapers throughout Georgia earlier in his writing career, with duties including covering the Atlanta Braves, the World Series and MLB’s All-Star Game. Ellis currently lives in the Atlanta suburbs and contributes his thoughts on Braves baseball and MLB for a variety of outlets. Reach him on Twitter at @bud006.