This team. This team is frustrating. This team is exciting. This team is agonizing. This team slumps. This team surges. This team dominates.
Yes, you may have thought these things about the Atlanta Braves throughout the season or even this month alone. You may have even thought these very things in the last week alone. How the Braves are playing now is how the Braves should have played all along had they any consistency on their side. How they play tomorrow and in the final run will come down to exactly that–consistency. They have the pieces. They have the talent. They have the potential, certainly. With a little luck and a heap of consistency, there is no reason this club couldn’t catch the Washington Nationals.
One of the most important pieces of the Braves’ offense in the last few series has been Justin Upton. Upton is on one of those torrid streaks that have defined his career. Over his last 12 games, the younger Upton has hit .350/.480/.700 with 4 homers, 2 doubles and 15 RBIs. Despite a miscue in the outfield in the tough loss to the Pirates in the final game of the series, his defense has been steady. He has been as much a reason for the Braves resurgence as any player on the roster.
The other gold glove caliber outfielder has had a series to remember as well. Jason Heyward hit .462 in Pittsburgh with 6 hits, including a double and a home run, and 5 RBI. He, like Upton, only struck out once at PNC Park. Heyward continues to make highlight reels on a nearly nightly basis with gems that defy physics. As was said last week about Freddie Freeman, if there isn’t a gold glove for Heyward at the end of this season, a Twitter campaign of epic proportions must be launched.
Let’s talk about pitching for a moment. Despite the terrible loss last night mostly at the hands of Jordan Walden, the Braves have seen improvement in their bullpen in the last few games. While they received tough news that Shae Simmons had been shut down again at Triple-A Gwinnett with shoulder soreness, there have been glimmers of hope for the setup men and all relievers whose name does not end in Kimbrel. Anthony Varvaro and David Hale have recovered from the horrendous roadtrip out west. In fact, since the second game in San Diego, Hale has not allowed a run. That’s 4 innings of work with where he has allowed 3 hits and 0 runs. Luis Avilan seems to have settled down considerably since being sent down as well. If these pieces have something to offer to the 1-2 punch of Walden and Kimbrel, the Braves are in great shape down the stretch.
While Jordan Walden was part of the stinker served up in the final game against the Pirates, let’s talk about the numbers for Walden overall. Since June 14th (30 games), Walden has a 1.00 ERA with 3 earned runs allowed in those games and 33 strikeouts. He held opponents to a .179 batting average against him. Since the aforementioned horrendous roadtrip, he has pitched with a 1.23 ERA in 7 1/3 innings pitched (1.17 overall in August). His 2.23 ERA on the season is very respectable. If the Braves have any hope of making it to the postseason and beyond, Walden’s health is paramount. His dominance followed by the unhittable Kimbrel limit opposing teams to 7 innings to try to score.
POWER-HITTING BRAVES ENTER THE BANDBOX…
Since the Braves are heading into the most notorious bandbox in the National League, let’s talk about slugging numbers among Braves starters.
While the masher of mashers Evan Gattis is slugging only .516 on the season, he has 2 homers in his last 5 games. He has played only 3 games at Great American Ballpark and hasn’t hit a dinger there. Look for that to change this series.
Freddie Freeman is slugging .490 in 2014. Since the last roadtrip his slugging percentage is respectable .667. Strangely the consistent Freeman has only hit .235/.316/.294 at Great American.
Slugging .520 on the season, .700 over his last 12 games, Justin Upton’s power numbers fare the best heading into Cincy. Though his numbers there are similar to Freddie’s, there is no stopping Upton when he gets hot and if he’s smashing balls out of the Ted, Cincy stands no chance against him.
While Chris Johnson is down nearly .100 in slugging since 2013, CJ has a .268 average when playing in Cincy with a .442 slugging percentage.
Of course good pitching will always beat good hitting no matter the park, so this weekend’s probables are important. And they are: Teheran (11-9, 3.06) vs. Holmberg (0-0, 15.00) tonight. Friday will see Minor (5-8, 5.16) vs. Latos (4-3, 3.10). Saturday will see Santana (13-6, 3.71) vs. Leake (9-11, 3.65). And Harang (10-7, 3.50) will take the mound against his former team vs. Simon (12-8, 3.35).
Tara Rowe is an independent historian and beat writer for BravesWire.com. Follow Tara on Twitter @framethepitch.